000 AXNT20 KNHC 092149 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Apr 10 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... SW Atlantic Ashfall Advisory: The Soufrire St. Vincent Volcano erupted today at 1241 UTC. It remains in a state of unrest and could erupt again with little notice. Volcanic ash may be reaching the surface within 14N59W to 13N61W to 14N61W to 14N60W to 15N58W to 14N59W. Mariners should exercise caution and report volcanic ash or floating debris to the National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4424. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends southward from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 02N33W to 04N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-07N between 33W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... Moderate wind southerly wind covers most of the basin with fresh winds in the far NW Gulf. A warm front has moved well inland into the United States, but lingering scattered moderate convection is occurring withing 120 nm of the coast of the Florida Panhandle. Seas average 3 to 5 ft across the basin. Fresh southerly winds will prevail across most of the basin through Sat. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf on Sat, then stall and weaken from the Florida panhandle to northern Mexico Sun night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with the front are expected in the NE Gulf through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... See Special Features section above for details on ashfall occurring as a result of a volcanic eruption on St Vincent. Moderate to fresh mainly easterly trades are occurring across the basin. A surface trough is analyzed across Colombia and Panama and into the eastern Pacific. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms occurring along this boundary are affecting the southwest Caribbean. Seas are 3-5 ft across the basin. High pressure centered east of the Bahamas will gradually shift eastward through Mon. Fresh SE winds are expected across the NW Caribbean this weekend, including the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh E winds and seas to 9 ft are expected across the central Caribbean through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for details on ashfall occurring as a result of a volcanic eruption on St Vincent. A 1020 mb high pressure is centered near 28N73W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail around the high, north of 22N and west of 67W. A frontal boundary has devolved into a surface trough that is now located from 32N40W to 19N53W. A broad area of westerly wind exists behind this front, being enhanced by a low pressure in the north Atlantic. Scattered moderate convection is noted in association with this trough from 22N to 30N between 30W and 45W. Farther east, a 1018 mb high pressure is centered southwest of the Canary Islands allowing for light to gentle anticyclonic flow over waters north of 15N. Seas north of 23N between 40W and 65W are 9-14 ft, with 5-7 ft seas elsewhere. Weak high pressure centered east of the Bahamas will gradually shift eastward through Mon. Fresh winds and seas to 9 ft are expected this weekend as a front approaches the western Atlantic. The cold front will move E of northern Florida on Mon, and extend from 30N65W to 23N78W on Tue. $$ KONARIK