000 AXNT20 KNHC 091023 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Apr 9 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends southward from the coast of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to 02N34W to 03N43W to 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 30 to 45 nm of the ITCZ axis between 19W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure centered east of the Bahamas near 26N72W is supporting southerly flow across the basin. Scatterometer data shows moderate SE to S winds in the central Gulf. A weak surface trough along the northern Gulf coast from Alabama to Louisiana is triggering scattered moderate to strong convection north of 28N between between 83W and 90W. A surface trough is analyzed along the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula from 22N90W to inland near 18N91W. No significant shower activity is associated with this trough. Seas are 3 to 4 across the Gulf of Mexico. Some areas of dense fog are possible this morning in the coastal waters of Texas. Fresh southerly winds will prevail across most of the basin through Sat. A weak cold front will move into the NW Gulf on Sat, then stall and weaken from the Florida panhandle to northern Mexico Sun night. Widespread showers and thunderstorms associated with the front are possible in the NE Gulf Sat night and Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... Satellite imagery shows increased cloudiness across most of the Caribbean. A surface trough is analyzed along 10N between Lake Maracaibo in northern Venezuela and Costa Rica. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring along this boundary. Mid and upper level cloudiness associated with this convection covers a large portion of the region. Scatterometer data this morning shows moderate to fresh easterly winds in the central Caribbean between 70W and 75W, and moderate to fresh E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras, as well as through the Windward Passage. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the entire basin. Weak high pressure centered east of the Bahamas near 26N72W will gradually shift eastward through Mon. Fresh SE winds are expected across the NW Caribbean this weekend. Fresh E winds and building seas are expected across the central Caribbean this weekend. Little significant change is expected elsewhere through Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... 1018 mb high pressure is centered east of the NW Bahamas near 26N72W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail around the high, north of 23N and west of 70W. A large occluded gale-force low pressure system is centered north of the discussion waters near 38N52W, covering much of the northern waters between 35W and 65W. A cold front associated with the low enters the discussion waters near 32N42W and extends to near 26N48W. Most of the shower activity from this low is north of 30N. ASCAT data this morning shows 20 to 30 kt winds north of 26N between 44W and 64W. Large seas associated with this low pressure system are 8-15 ft, north of 22N between 40W and 65W. This low will linger north of the area through Sat night, then accelerate to the east-northeast Sun and Mon. Large NW to N swell will continue across the N and NE forecast waters through late Sun. The weak high pressure centered east of the Bahamas will slowly shift eastward through Mon. A cold front will move E of northern Florida on Mon, and extend from 30N65W to 23N78W on Tue. $$ Mundell