000 AXNT20 KNHC 082208 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Apr 9 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 03N30W to 03N46W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 35W and 51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from the Florida panhandle to to 28N91W. A ridge of high pressure extends across the Gulf of Mexico south of the surface trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the NE Gulf, where there is a tighter pressure gradient between the ridge and surface trough. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the Gulf waters. High pressure over the SW N Atlantic will gradually shift eastward as a cold front slowly moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley, then stalls over the northern Gulf this weekend. Moderate return flow will increase to fresh to strong speeds Fri night into Sat ahead of the front. The stalled front is expected to linger over the northern Gulf into early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends across the eastern Caribbean. A relatively weak pressure gradient prevails across the Caribbean waters, where gentle to moderate winds are noted. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range. High pressure north of the basin will gradually shift eastward through early next week. Fresh to strong E to SE winds and building seas will develop by Fri night across the northwest Caribbean from the Gulf of Honduras through the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade winds will develop over the south-central Caribbean and south of Hispaniola this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A large complex gale force low is centered north of the discussion waters, covering much of the norther Atlantic waters. A cold front extending from the low enters the discussion waters near 32N43W and extends southwest to near 21N60W. An elongated trough is located east of the front, from 26N41W to 16N60W into the Caribbean waters south of Puerto Rico. Fresh to strong winds extending southward from the low cover the forecast waters north of 26N between 48W- 65W, with near gale winds north of 31N. Seas over this area are in the 8-15 ft range. High pressure of 1018 mb is centered near 27N72W. Farther east, another high pressure center of 1018 mb is centered near 25N26W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the highs. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere across the forecast waters. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range west of 73W, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast west of 65W, northerly swell will continue moving through the waters east of 70W through this weekend. High pressure centered near 27N72W will gradually shift eastward through early next week. Winds and seas may increase offshore Florida this weekend ahead of a cold front that will pass over the southeastern U.S. and eventually move offshore early next week. $$ AL