000 AXNT20 KNHC 072205 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Apr 8 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 00N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N-08N between 13W-21W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 04N between 28W and 37W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1021 mb is centered over the NE Gulf near 29N84W. Light to gentle winds prevail in the vicinity of the high center, with moderate to fresh winds prevailing elsewhere across the Gulf waters. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range over the NE Gulf, 4-6 ft over the NW Gulf, and 2-5 ft elsewhere. The area of high pressure will gradually shift east as a cold front slowly moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. The front will stall over the northern Gulf by the end of the week. Mainly moderate to fresh return flow will prevail through the week. Winds will increase to fresh to locally strong Fri night into Sat ahead of the front, before diminishing late Sun with moderate easterly winds returning through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh trade winds are noted off the coast of northeast Colombia. Fresh NE winds are in the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate trade winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the eastern Caribbean, 5 to 7 ft in central Caribbean and Windward Passage, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. High pressure north of the basin will continue to support fresh winds and moderate seas in the lee of Cuba, and the Windward Passage through early Thu. As high pressure shifts east, winds and seas will begin to diminish over the area. By the weekend, strong E to SE winds and building seas will return across the central and northwest Caribbean from the Gulf of Honduras through the Yucatan Channel. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure of 1020 mb is centered near 27N77W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere west of 70W. Seas over the open waters west of 70W are in the 1-3 ft range. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N55W to 29N64W to 31N72W. Strong to near- gale force winds are north of 28N ahead of and following the front, between 50W and 65W. Seas are estimated to be 10 to 14 ft in this area, with 8 to 10 ft seas in NW swell north of 26N between 45W and 70W. Elsewhere over the north Atlantic south of 32N, a ridge extends from 1017 mb near 24N27W westward to 45W. This is supporting moderate trade winds south of 20N and light to gentle breezes north of 20N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft primarily in NW swell. For the forecast west of 65W, Winds and seas may increase east of Florida this weekend ahead of a cold front moving into the southeast U.S. $$ AL