000 AXNT20 KNHC 070910 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Apr 7 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N17W to 04N23W. The ITCZ continues from 04N23W to 02N40W to the coast of Brazil near 01N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N-07N between the coast of Liberia and 10W-16W, within 60 nm either side of the axis between 18W-27W, from 02N-04N between 29W-32W, and within 60-120 nm either side of the axis between 35W-51W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1020 mb is located in the northeast Gulf near 29N44W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds and seas of 2 ft or less are noted in the northeast Gulf under the high. Diurnally driven fresh to strong W-NW winds west-northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula have diminished to fresh in the central Gulf, while fresh to strong winds in SE-S return flow are noted in the northwest Gulf where the local pressure gradient is tight. Moderate to fresh E-SE flow prevails elsewhere. Seas are mainly 3-5 ft elsewhere in the basin, except locally to 6 ft near the stronger winds. High pressure will gradually shift east as a cold front slowly moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley, before stalling over the northern Gulf this weekend. Mainly moderate to locally fresh return flow will prevail through the week, increasing to fresh to locally strong Fri night into Sat ahead of the front, before diminishing thereafter. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure north of the basin and low pressure over Colombia has been supporting pulsing fresh to strong winds in the lee of Cuba, across the Windward Passage, south of the Dominican Republic and in the south-central Caribbean offshore of northern Colombia. The pressure gradient is weakening slightly this morning to allow these winds to diminish slightly. Moderate NE-E flow prevails elsewhere. Seas are mainly 3-5 ft across the basin early this morning, except locally 6-7 ft near the stronger winds. Deep convection persists across portions of central and northern Colombia with intense lightning, heavy rainfall and flash flooding possible. Refer to statements issued by your local national meteorological agency. High pressure north of the basin will continue to support fresh winds and moderate seas in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and off Colombia through tonight. As high pressure shifts east, winds and seas will begin to diminish across the basin. This pattern will support fresh to strong E to SE winds and building seas north of Honduras by the end of the week into the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure of 1020 mb is located northeast of the northern Bahamas near 28N75W, with a ridge axis reaching northwest to near the Georgia/Florida border, and reaching east-southeast to near 25N60W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are under the ridge, with moderate to fresh NE-E flow south of 22N. A cold front is analyzed along 31N between 67W-70W. A band of intense thunderstorms with frequent lightning is along and within 30 nm ahead of the front. Fresh to near gale force winds are noted north of 29N between 57W-72W and locally higher gusts may occur in the line of convection this morning. Building northerly swell is outrunning the front with seas of 8-11 ft currently north of 27N between 50W-69W. Seas are mainly in the 2-4 ft range from along and southwest of the ridge axis, and 4-7 ft elsewhere northeast of the ridge axis. A pair of surface troughs are analyzed ahead of the cold front, the western trough from 31N54W to 26N65W, and the eastern trough from 31N43W to just north of the northern coast of Puerto Rico. Isolated showers are occurring with each trough, except for scattered showers south of 22N. A 1017 mb high is analyzed near 23N41W. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail north of 18N and east of 50W, except moderate to fresh north of 26N and ahead of each surface trough. Seas of 4-7 ft dominate the open central and eastern tropical Atlantic. A surface trough will drift southeast across the Tropical N Atlantic to just north of Puerto Rico. A low pressure system will bring strong winds and building seas to the area north of 27N and east of 70W through today, along with a band of scattered thunderstorms. Winds and seas may increase east of Florida this weekend ahead of a cold front moving into the southeast U.S. $$ Lewitsky