000
AXNT20 KNHC 062144
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Apr 7 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 13N17W 
to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to the coast of Brazil 
near 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to
07N between 13N and 20N and from 02S to 04N between 36W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1022 mb is centered over the NE Gulf near 29N84W
with associated ridge extending westward across the northern Gulf.
Light to gentle winds prevail over the NE Gulf in the vicinity of
the high center, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are
in the 1-2 ft range over the NE Gulf and 3-5 ft elsewhere. 

High pressure will gradually shift east as a cold front slowly 
moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley. The cold front will 
stall over the northern Gulf by the end of the week. Fresh to 
strong winds will pulse W-NW of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight. 
Moderate to fresh return flow will prevail across the Gulf Fri 
into Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure is centered north of the area near 28N77W. The
pressure gradient between that area of high pressure and low
pressure over Colombia is supporting fresh to locally strong winds
over the south central Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are also
noted over the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the south central
Caribbean, 2-4 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 4-5 ft
elsewhere. 

High pressure north of the basin will continue to support fresh 
to strong winds and moderate seas in the lee of Cuba, the Windward
Passage, and off Colombia tonight. As high pressure shifts east, 
winds and seas will begin to diminish across the basin. This 
pattern will support fresh E to SE winds and building seas north 
of Honduras by the end of the week into the weekend. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

High pressure of 1022 mb is centered near 28N77W. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and low pressure 
centered north of the area is supporting strong to near gale force
winds, and seas in the 8-11 ft range, north of 29N between 55W 
and 66W. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 31N44W to 
just north of Puerto Rico, with another high pressure center near
22N38W. Light winds prevail over the high centers with gentle to 
moderate winds elsewhere north of 20N. Over the tropical waters 
south of 20N, moderate to fresh trades prevail. Seas are in the 
1-3 ft range over the far western Atlantic discussion waters and 
4-7 ft over the remainder of the forecast waters. 

For the forecast west of 65W, a surface trough will drift 
southeast across the N Atlantic to just north of Puerto Rico. 
By midweek, another low pressure system could bring strong winds 
and building seas to the area east of 70W and north of 27N. Winds 
and seas may increase east of Florida this weekend ahead of a cold
front moving into the southeast U.S. 

$$
AL