000
AXNT20 KNHC 061703
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Apr 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W 
to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W to the coast of Brazil
at 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 02N
between 40W and 45W as well as between 03N and 06N east of 22W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge of high pressure is located over the SE United States with
gentle to moderate E to SE winds across most of the Gulf and seas
of 2 to 4 ft. Fresh SE winds are occurring in the SW Gulf of 
Mexico are accompanied by 5 to 6 ft seas. No significant showers
or deep convection are occurring over the Gulf today.

High pressure over the Bahamas will linger through mid week as a 
cold front slowly moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley, 
before stalling over the northern Gulf by Sat. Fresh to strong 
winds will pulse W-NW of the Yucatan Peninsula once again tonight.
Mainly moderate to locally fresh return flow will prevail across 
the remainder of the Gulf through the end of the week, except 
gentle to moderate in the northeast Gulf. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A moderate pressure gradient between a 1022 mb high just north of
the Bahamas and the 1010 mb Colombian Low is forcing strong NE
trades north of Colombia and moderate to fresh NE to E trades
elsewhere across the Caribbean. Seas are 6 to 8 ft just north of
Colombia and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. While no significant deep
convection is occurring, scattered showers are present in the
coastal waters of Panama, Honduras, and Belize.  

The high north of the basin will continue to support fresh to 
strong winds and moderate seas in the lee of Cuba, the Windward 
Passage, and off Colombia tonight. High pressure is forecast to 
shift east and gradually weaken allowing winds and seas to 
diminish across the basin by the middle of the week. This pattern 
will support fresh winds and building seas north of Honduras by 
the end of the week into the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough from 30N42N to 19N65W splits a ridge extending
from a 1022 mb high just north of the Bahamas to a 1019 mb high at
24N37W. Scattered showers are present within 120 n mi of the
trough north of 21N. With the highs/ridge weak, the NE to E trades
equatorward of the ridge are generally light to fresh, except for
some moderate NE winds over the Mona Passage and Windward Passage.
North of the ridge, there are some fresh to moderate W winds north
of 28N between 55W and 65W. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft, except
for 8 to 10 ft in the fresh to moderate W winds. 

For the region east of 55W, a large extratropical low will 
approach our northern border and cause strong to near gale W winds
north of 27N from tonight through at least Sat night. Seas will 
reach near 15 ft during this time.

The surface trough will drift southeast across the Tropical N 
Atlantic to just northwest of Puerto Rico through tonight. Winds 
and seas south of 22N and west of the boundary will diminish and 
subside today. By midweek, low pressure system mentioned above could
bring strong winds and building seas to the area east of 70W and 
north of 29N. Winds and seas may increase east of Florida this 
weekend ahead of a cold front moving into the southeast U.S. 

$$
Landsea