000 AXNT20 KNHC 060906 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Apr 6 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0750 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 00N40W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N-08N between 11W-15W, from 04N-07N between 16W-21W, from 03N- 06N between 23W-26W, and from 01S-01N between 38W-41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-04N between 44W-51W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure is positioned in the northeast Gulf with light to gentle anticyclonic winds there. Moderate to fresh E-SE flow covers the remainder of the basin, except fresh to locally strong west-northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range in the northeast Gulf, and 2-4 ft elsewhere, except locally to 5 ft west-northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. The high pressure over north Florida will linger through mid week as a cold front slowly moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley, before stalling over the northern Gulf by Sat. Fresh to strong winds will pulse W-NW of the Yucatan Peninsula through early this morning, and again tonight. Mainly moderate to locally fresh return flow will prevail across the remainder of the Gulf through the end of the week, except gentle to moderate in the northeast Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure is north of the basin while low pressure is over northern Colombia. This pressure pattern is supporting fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba, across the approach to the Windward Passage, and north of Colombia in the south-central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades are noted in the eastern Caribbean, with moderate to locally fresh elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range in the eastern Caribbean, and 4-7 ft elsewhere, highest near the fresh to strong winds. Isolated to widely scattered showers are possible in the trade wind flow. Deep convection is occurring yet again over northern and central Colombia with heavy rainfall and flash flooding possible. Refer to statements issued by your national meteorological agency for more details. The high pressure north of the basin will support fresh to strong winds and moderate seas in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and off Colombia early today and then again tonight. Winds and seas will diminish slightly across the basin starting mid week as the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. This pattern will support fresh winds and building seas north of Honduras by the end of the week into the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A very slow moving and dissipating cold front extends from near 22N62W to 19N67W. Scattered showers are possible within 90-150 nm either side of the front. Fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft were occurring south of 22N and west of the front, but these conditions should be diminishing and subsiding through the early morning hours. High pressure is centered east of Cape Canaveral, Florida with a ridge axis along 27N/28N. Mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are found under the ridging and north of 22N, except in the northeast portion of the offshore waters where moderate to fresh W-NW are noted around a low pressure system well north of the discussion area. Seas in the 8-11 ft range associated with that system are spreading across the waters north of 29N between 50W-68W. Seas are 3-5 ft west of 75W, and 4-7 ft elsewhere west of 50W. A dissipating cold front, now transitioning to a remnant trough, is noted from 31N40W to 22N62W. Isolated to scattered showers are possible within 60-120 nm either side of the front. Another low pressure system is north of the discussion waters in the eastern Atlantic just west-southwest of the Azores. Associated fresh to strong winds and seas in the 7-10 ft range are found north of 28N between 25W-35W. A ridge axis is along 23N with light to gentle anticyclonic winds from 20N-24N and east of 50W. Moderate to locally fresh trades and seas of 5-8 ft are south of 20N. The decaying front will drift southeast across the Tropical N Atlantic to just northwest of Puerto Rico through tonight. Winds and seas south of 22N and west of the boundary will diminish and subside today. By midweek, another low pressure system could bring strong winds and building seas to the area east of 70W and north of 29N. Winds and seas may increase east of Florida this weekend ahead of a cold front moving into the southeast U.S. $$ Lewitsky