000 AXNT20 KNHC 050906 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Apr 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from 03N22W to 00N30W to 01N41W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N-04N between 07W-20W, from 04N-06N between 17W-23W, and from 00N-07N between 45W-59W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure 1024 mb located just southeast of Pensacola, Florida near 29.5N85.5W extends a ridge axis W-NW to northeast Texas and NE-E across northern Florida. Mainly gentle to moderate easterly flow covers the basin, except fresh NE-E winds W-NW of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are mainly in the 2-4 ft range across the offshore waters, except to 5 ft W-NW of the Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated to widely scattered rainshowers are possible north of 22N and east of 91W, as well as west of 94W. The high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to extend across the basin through the week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse W-NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night through Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A dissipating stationary front extends across Hispaniola to just southeast of Jamaica to 16N80W with isolated to scattered showers within 60-90 nm either side of the front, extending SW-W to Honduras. Fresh to strong NE winds are blowing through the Windward Passage and also in the Lee of Cuba. A surface trough is across northern Colombia with deep convection persisting across portions of central and northern Colombia. Frequent lightning and heavy rainfall is likely occurring with this convection. Refer to your local national meteorological agency for more details. Fresh to strong NE-E winds are occurring in the south-central Caribbean offshore of northern Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Mainly moderate to locally fresh trades dominate the remainder of the basin. Isolated rainshowers are possible, embedded in the trade wind flow. Seas are mainly in the 4-7 ft range west of 73W, and 3-5 ft east of 73W, higher near Atlantic passages. The stationary front is expected to continue dissipating through today. Fresh to strong winds and moderate seas west of the front will persist in the Lee of Cuba and across the approach to the Windward Passage through the early part of the week. High pressure in the Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south- central Caribbean through Tue night, with the highest winds near the Colombia coast. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N49W to 22N64W to 20N69W with scattered showers possible within 90-120 nm either side of the front. High pressure is noted northeast of Cape Canaveral, Florida near 30N79W. Light to moderate anticyclonic winds are from 27N-31N west of 65W, with moderate to fresh N-NE flow south of 27N and west of the cold front, locally strong south of 22N including across the approach to the Windward Passage. Seas in the 7-10 ft range are west of the front to 70W/71W, highest northeast of Hispaniola, with 4-7 ft seas elsewhere outside of the Bahamas. High pressure is noted E-SE of the cold front near 23N46W with an east-to-west ridge axis. Light to moderate anticyclonic winds are noted from 20N-26N, with moderate to locally fresh trades south of 20N. A slow moving low pressure system is north of the area, while associated fresh to strong westerly winds reach into the area, north of 29N and east of 41W. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range in northerly swell across this area, and mainly 5-7 ft elsewhere. The cold front will continue to slowly move today. Fresh to strong winds east of the Turks and Caicos and south of 23N are expected to diminish by sunrise today, but will continue near the Windward Passage through today. High pressure will settle across the region during the early part of the week with more tranquil marine conditions forecast. By midweek, another low pressure system could bring strong winds and building seas to the area east of 70W and north of 29N. $$ Lewitsky