000 AXNT20 KNHC 042210 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Apr 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 02N32W to 01N41W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N-05N between 17W to 35W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 02S-06N between 38W to 41W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1027 mb centered over Georgia and Alabama extends broad ridging across the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh NE to E winds prevail over the far SE Gulf, Florida Straits, and Yucatan Channel, with gentle to moderate E flow elsewhere. Seas are currently 1-3 feet over the northern Gulf and 2-4 ft over the central Gulf, increasing to a maximum of 6 ft near the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to extend across the basin through the middle of the week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse W-NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night through Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from Haiti to just SE of Jamaica to the NE tip of Nicaragua. Scattered moderate convection is within 75 nm either side of the stationary front. Fresh to locally strong winds are ongoing behind the front, highest in the Windward Passage. Seas over the NW Caribbean are estimated to be 6 to 8 ft. Farther east, moderate trades prevail, aside from from fresh to strong NE winds off the Colombian coast. Seas are likely 3-5 ft in the eastern Caribbean and 4-6 ft in the south-central Caribbean. For the forecast, the stationary front will gradually dissipate tonight. Fresh to strong winds and moderate seas west of the front will persist in the Lee of Cuba and across the approach to the Windward Passage through the early part of the week. High pressure in the Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south- central Caribbean through Tue night, with the highest winds near the Colombia coast. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 50W: A cold front extends from 32N51W to 24N60W to the Dominican Republic. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm NW and 120 SE of the front. Fresh to strong winds follow within about 180 nm NE of the front, to the S of 23N, with moderate winds farther north. Gentle anti-cyclonic flow prevails off the coast of northern and central Florida, north of 27N and west of 72W due to a 1027 mb high pressure centered over Georgia. Seas are 7-10 ft in N swell west of the front to 75W and east of the Bahamas, and 4-6 ft west of 76W. Fresh to strong winds will continue near the Turks and Caicos tonight, then diminish Mon. Fresh to strong winds will continue near the Windward Passage through Mon. High pressure will settle across the region during the early part of the week with more tranquil marine conditions forecast. By midweek, another low pressure system could bring strong winds and building seas to the area E of 70W and N of 29N. East of 50W: A 1019 mb high is near 23N47W. A surface ridge with light to gentle winds extends eastward from the high to 23N33W to 29N20W to a 1020 mb high near 35N18W. North of the ridge, a large gale force low centered near 37N37W is producing fresh to strong west winds from 29N-32N between 31W-42W. Seas of 8-10 ft in N swell cover the waters north of 25N between 26W-42W. These conditions will migrate slowly E over the next 24 hours as the low north of the area drifts eastward. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range elsewhere across the open central and eastern tropical Atlantic waters. $$ KONARIK