000 AXNT20 KNHC 040039 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Apr 4 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 2100 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 03N24W to 01N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 15W and 25W and from 02N to 08N between 32W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... Moderate E flow prevails over the western half of the Gulf. Fresh to strong NE-E winds are found in the SE Gulf and Florida Straits. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range in NE swell across the southeast half of the Gulf, and in the 2-5 ft range for the northwest half of the Gulf. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and moderate seas in the southeast Gulf will gradually diminish and subside by Sun. High pressure will continue to extend across the basin through the middle of next week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse W-NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from the Windward Passage to Jamaica, with a stationary front continuing to the coast of NE Honduras. Behind this front and over the Windward Passage, fresh to strong winds prevail. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail across the NW Caribbean behind the front. Elsewhere across the Caribbean, scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen just offshore near the Panama/Colombia border, mainly south of 11N between 76W-79W. Fresh trades are occurring over the south central Caribbean, with moderate winds prevailing across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the cold front is expected to completely stall tonight and gradually dissipate through the remainder of the weekend. Fresh to strong winds and building seas west of the front will persist in the Lee of Cuba and across the approach to the Windward Passage through early next week. High pressure in the Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south- central Caribbean through early next week, with the highest winds near the Colombia coast. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Low pressure noted near 33N35W of 996 mb has moved far enough N of the basin for gale conditions to end. However, strong NW winds will prevail tonight and seas of 8-12 ft will continue north of 28N and east of 45W through Sunday. A cold front extends from 32N60W to 25N66W through the Turks and Caicos Islands to the Windward Passage. A pre-frontal surface trough is located about 75 nm ahead of the front, north of 21N. Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms are within 180 nm southeast of the cold front, mainly north of 21N and east of 68W. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds prevail across a wide area behind the front. A NNW-SSE oriented surface ridge axis extends through a 1022 mb high pressure near 30N53W to near 23N47W. Light to gentle winds are within a few hundred nm of this ridge axis. For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will slowly move eastward over the southeast waters and across Hispaniola. Behind the cold front, fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas are expected through Sun. Fresh to strong winds will continue near the Windward Passage through Mon. High pressure will settle across the region early next week with more tranquil marine conditions forecast. $$ KONARIK