000 AXNT20 KNHC 020943 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Apr 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near the border of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 11N15W to 06N17W. The ITCZ axis continues from 06N17W to 00N31W to 00N41W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N-03N between 13W- 18W, within 150 nm north of the ITCZ between 25W-39W, and from 01N-08N between 39W-53W. GULF OF MEXICO... A strong late-season cold front is in the process of exiting the basin, extending from northwest Cuba to just south of the Yucatan Channel to the northern Yucatan Peninsula to the southwest Gulf of Mexico near 19N96W. Earlier ASCAT scatterometer data showed gale force winds offshore of Mexico south of 24N with fresh to strong northerly winds elsewhere behind the front, however gale force winds have diminished a few hours ago. Seas are mainly 7-11 ft across the basin in the wake of the front, with 4-6 ft seas ahead of the front in the eastern Bay of Campeche. The cold front will shift completely southeast of the basin early today. Fresh to strong winds and large seas behind the front will diminish across the region later today through Sat. High pressure will build in the wake of the front and prevail through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front is entering the northwest Caribbean Sea, extending from western Cuba near 23N82W to just south of the Yucatan Peninsula to across the northern Yucatan Peninsula. An earlier ASCAT scatterometer pass showed fresh to strong northerly winds already arriving behind the front, with seas up to 8 ft near the Yucatan Channel. A moderate pressure gradient across the south-central Caribbean between high pressure east of Bermuda and a 1006 mb low over northern Colombia is producing strong to near-gale force NE to E trades in the south-central Caribbean. Seas are up to 9-10 ft in the area of the strongest winds. Moderate to fresh trades are noted elsewhere in the Caribbean sea, except light and variable winds are mainly north of 18N between Haiti and 79W. Seas are 5-7 ft in the north-central and eastern Caribbean with mainly 3-5 ft seas in the northwest Caribbean ahead of the front. No significant deep convection is occurring over the Caribbean waters, but patches of scattered showers are possible in the southwest and south-central Caribbean, and deep convection is noted over inland portions of northern Colombia. The cold front will move across the northwest Caribbean today, then stall and dissipate across the northwest Caribbean through Sat. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front, persisting in the Lee of Cuba and across the approach to the Windward Passage through the weekend. High pressure in the Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through early next week, with the highest winds near the Colombia coast. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the east and central Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N73W to 23N81W. A pre-frontal trough is north of 24N within 30 nm ahead of the cold front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible north of 24N within 60-120 nm ahead of both features. Earlier ASCAT scatterometer data showed fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front, along with 7-9 ft seas. A 1022 mb high pressure center is noted east of Bermuda near 33N55W with a ridge axis extending southwest to the southeast Bahamas. The cold front will extend from Bermuda to central Cuba by this evening, from 27N65W to eastern Cuba Sat afternoon, then stall and weaken from 23N65W to the Windward Passage on Sun. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas are expected in association with the cold front. High pressure will settle across the region early next week with more tranquil marine conditions forecast. Farther east, a cold front extends from 32N32W west-southwestward to 24N52W where it transitions to a stationary front and extends northwestward to near 27N59W. Fresh SW winds prevail ahead of the front, with fresh to strong winds moving south of 30N as a large extratropical cyclone north of the area moves closer to the area. Building northerly seas in the 8-11 ft range associated with this system continue to propagate southward to 26N and east of 51W. Scattered showers are occurring within 60 nm on either side of the front. Mainly moderate to locally fresh trades prevail south of 20N along with 7-9 ft seas in old northerly swell, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds noted from 22N-25N under a ridge axis with extends across that area ahead of the cold front. The large extratropical cyclone is expected to move closer to 32N and will shift an area of strong to near gale winds and building seas to 16 ft north of 27N and east of 50W Fri and Sat before diminishing Sun. $$ Lewitsky