000 AXNT20 KNHC 020535 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Apr 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front for early April extends from south Florida across the southern Gulf to the coast of E Mexico near 20N96W. A recent ASCAT pass indicated strong north to northeasterly winds occurring behind the front, and gale-force winds offshore of Tampico, Mexico. Wave heights in the central Gulf are up to 12 ft currently, but winds and seas should diminish on Fri as the cold front clears the area and high pressure shifts eastward. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N15W to 06N17W. The ITCZ axis continues from 06N17W to 02N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02N43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 04N between 42W and 48W. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico near Tampico, Mexico due to a very tight gradient behind a strong cold front that is moving across the southern Gulf. Scattered showers continue to be within 60 nm of the cold front. Please see the Special Features section for more details. For the forecast, the cold front will shift southeast of the Gulf waters tonight. Strong winds and building seas prevail behind the front, with gale-force winds near the coast of Mexico through the next few hours. Winds will diminish across the region Fri and Sat. High pres will build in the wake of the front and prevail through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A moderate pressure gradient across the south-central Caribbean between the Bermuda High and a 1007 mb low over northern Colombia is producing strong to near-gale force NE to E trades in the south-central Caribbean. Seas are up to 10 ft in the area of the strongest winds. A small area of strong E trades is also likely occurring just south of Hispaniola with seas to 7 ft. In the eastern basin, NE to E trades are moderate to fresh with seas 5 to 7 ft. In the western basin, the cold front moving out of the Gulf has reached the entrance of the Yucatan Channel. Scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong NE winds within the channel, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 3-5 ft. No significant deep convection is occurring over the Caribbean, but patches of scattered showers are possible in the southwest and south-central Caribbean. The cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will reach the Yucatan Channel tonight, then stall and dissipate across the NW Caribbean through Sat. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front, persisting in the Lee of Cuba and across the approach to the Windward Passage through the weekend. High pressure in the Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south- central Caribbean through early next week, with the highest winds near the Colombia coast. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the east and central Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 32N73W to south Florida. NW winds behind the front are moderate to strong, while SW winds ahead of the front are fresh to moderate. Seas are currently 7 to 10 ft behind the front in strong northerly flow. A prefrontal trough extends from 31N73W to the central Bahamas near 25N78W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 150 nm of the trough. The cold front will extend from Bermuda to western Cuba on Fri, from 27N65W to eastern Cuba on Sat, then stall and weaken from 23N65W to the Windward Passage on Sun. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas are expected in association with the cold front. High pressure will settle across the region early next week with more tranquil marine conditions forecast. Farther east a cold front extends from 32N33W west-southwestward to 26N40W to 24N50W where it transitions to a stationary front and extends northwestward. SW winds north of 27N ahead of the front are fresh to strong, while NW veering to NE winds are only fresh to moderate behind the front. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are occurring north of 28N east of 50W mainly in NW swell. Scattered showers are occurring within 60 n mi of the front, north of 28N. A large extratropical cyclone is expected to move near our northern border producing strong to near gale E winds and seas near 15 ft north of 27N east of 50W Fri and Sat before diminishing Sun. $$ Mora