000 AXNT20 KNHC 311016 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Mar 31 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the Texas coast late this afternoon and move quickly across the entire basin through Thu. Behind the front, strong to near gale force northerly winds are expected across much of the northern and western Gulf, including frequent gusts to gale force offshore Texas through the western Florida Panhandle tonight through Thu morning. Gale-force winds will develop near Tampico, Mexico early Thu morning and spread to near Veracruz, Mexico by Thu evening. Most of the Gulf will experience wave heights in the range of 9-13 ft on Thu behind the cold front. Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight gradient remains over the south- central Caribbean between high pressure north of the basin and lower pressures in northern Colombia. This gradient will continue to support fresh to strong winds offshore of northern Colombia, pulsing to minimal gale-force at times during the overnight and early morning hours. These conditions are expected to continue through early Thu morning. Wave heights are expected to peak around 13 to 14 ft during the period of gale-force winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W to 05N18W, where latest scatterometer indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ, to 03N20W and to 00N30W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm on either side of the trough axis between 17W and 25W. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico, near the coast of Mexico. A Gale Warning is also in effect for frequent gusts to gale force in the coastal waters from southern Texas to the western panhandle of Florida. Weak ridging is across the northern Gulf. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh E winds in the Straits of Florida and gentle to moderate return flow elsewhere. Seas are 2-4 ft across the basin. A cold front moving off the Texas coast late this afternoon will rapidly shift across the rest of Gulf waters through Thu night. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected behind the front, with gale-force winds likely near the coast of Mexico Thu and Thu night. Winds will diminish across the region Fri and Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. An ASCAT pass from earlier this morning showed fresh to strong trades in the eastern and southwestern Caribbean, near gale- force winds in the central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds in the western Caribbean. Scattered showers are offshore of Panama and Costa Rica. Otherwise, no significant precipitation is noted. Seas range from 9-13 ft in the south- central to SW Caribbean, 6-9 ft in the E Caribbean, and 3-6 ft in the NW Caribbean. High pressure across the Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Fri morning, with winds pulsing to gale-force at night near the coast of Colombia into early Thu morning. Fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the east-central Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE winds are possible in the Windward Passage through Thu morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front reaches from 32N44W to 29N55W. A dissipating stationary front is along 22N between 32W and 46W. Farther east, a strong 1002 mb low pressure system is centered near 33N20W, with near-gale force winds depicted in scatterometer data in the south semicircle of the low, north of 29N between 16W and 30W. Seas north of the stationary front are 10 to 15 ft in N to NW swell. Fresh trade winds south of 20N is producing a large area of 8-10 ft seas east of the Windward Islands to 40W. 12 to 18 ft seas are associated with the low near 33N20W. The low in the eastern ATLC will shift northeastward and weaken through Thu. Large NW-N swell will affect the waters north of 27N between 15W-35W through Thu. High pressure will prevail north of 32N through Thu morning. A cold front will move east of northern Florida Thu morning, extend from near Bermuda to western Cuba on Fri, from 27N65W to central Cuba Sat, and from 25N65W to eastern Cuba on Sun. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front. $$ Mundell