855 AXNT20 KNHC 310548 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Mar 31 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the Texas coast by early Wed evening and will move quickly across the entire basin by noon Thu. Behind the front, strong to near gale force northerly winds are expected across much of the northern and western Gulf, except with frequent gusts to gale force offshore Texas through the western Florida Panhandle Wed night into Thu morning. Gale-force winds will develop near Tampico, Mexico early Thu morning and spread to near Veracruz, Mexico by Thu evening. Most of the Gulf will experience wave heights in the range of 10-12 ft on Thu behind the front. Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient remains across the south-central Caribbean between high pressure north of the basin and lower pressure over northern Colombia. This gradient will continue to support fresh to near gale force winds offshore of northern Colombia, pulsing to gale-force during the overnight and early morning hours. These conditions are expected to continue through Wed night. Wave heights are expected to peak around 13 ft during the late night/early morning hours with the gale force winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W to 04N20W, where latest scatterometer indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 01N20W and to 00N39W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between 15W-22W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak ridging has spread across the Gulf behind the frontal boundary that shifted north this afternoon. Scatterometer data reveals fresh E winds within the Florida Straits and gentle to moderate return flow elsewhere. Seas are calm in the NE Gulf and 3-4 ft across the rest of the basin. For the forecast, see the Special Features section above regarding strong to gale force winds Wed night and Thu behind a strong cold front. Winds across the Gulf will then diminish by the weekend with higher pressure building in. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean. See above. An ASCAT pass from 0140 UTC noted fresh to strong trades in the eastern and southwestern Caribbean, near gale-force winds in the central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds in the western Caribbean. Scattered showers are offshore of Panama and Costa Rica and scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted between Cuba and Jamaica. Otherwise, no significant precipitation is noted. Seas range from 8-11 ft in the south-central to SW Caribbean, 5-8 ft in the E Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, and 2-4 ft in the extreme NW Caribbean For the forecast, high pressure across the Atlantic will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through the 5-day forecast period, with winds pulsing to gale-force near the coast of Colombia tonight and Wed night. Fresh trade winds will remain elsewhere across the eastern and central Caribbean. Fresh to strong northeast winds are expected across the Windward Passage through Thu morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 50W: a stationary front lingers just north of our discussion area W of 50W to the southeastern U.S. coast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may still exist along this boundary, along 32N. High pressure ridging covers the remainder of this portion of the Atlantic. ASCAT data from earlier this evening reveals gentle to moderate winds north of 25N. Fresh trades extend south of 25N, becoming strong off the northern coast of Hispaniola. Seas in this region are 5-6 ft. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail north of the region through early Thu morning. A cold front will move east of northern Florida Thu morning, extend from near Bermuda to western Cuba on Fri, from 27N65W to central Cuba Sat, and from 25N65W to western Cuba on Sun. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front. Farther east, a cold front transitioning into a stationary front extends from a 1004 mb low that is north of the discussion area near 34N22W. Fresh to strong winds are north of the front. Fresh to strong trades are also across the tropical Atlantic from 05N- 20N and west of 35W. Seas of 12-17 ft in large NW-N swell will affect waters north of 26N between 23W-38W through Wed morning. $$ Mora