000 AXNT20 KNHC 301755 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the Texas coast by early Wed evening and will move quickly across the entire basin by noon Thu. Behind the front, strong to near gale force northerly winds are expected across much of the northern and western Gulf, with frequent gusts to gale force offshore Texas through the western Florida Panhandle Wed night into Thu morning. Gale force winds will develop near Tampico, Mexico early Thu morning and spread to near Veracruz, Mexico by Thu evening. Most of the Gulf will experience seas of 10-12 ft on Thursday, behind the front. Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient prevails across the south-central Caribbean between high pressure north of the basin and lower pressure over northern Colombia. This gradient will continue to support fresh to near gale force winds offshore of northern Colombia, pulsing to gale-force during the overnight and early morning hours. These conditions are expected to continue through Wed night. Seas will peak around 13 ft during the late night/early morning hours with the gale force winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 11N15W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 00N39W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are noted within 150 nm on either side of the boundaries. GULF OF MEXICO... A warm front extends across the northern Gulf Coast from the Florida Big Bend to New Orleans to Houston. Scattered showers and tstorms are near the boundary over northern Florida between Jacksonville and Tallahassee. Most of the precipitation has exited the Gulf waters, except for an isolated shower or two near the coast of the Florida Panhandle. The latest ASCAT data pass shows mainly moderate SE winds across most of the Gulf of Mexico. Seas are 3-6 ft in the western Gulf and 1-3 ft in the NE Gulf. For the forecast, see the Special Features section above regarding strong to gale force winds Wed night and Thu behind a strong cold front. Winds across the Gulf will then diminish by the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean. See above. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate showers and tstorms along the eastern border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica, extending for 60 nm into the SW Caribbean. No significant areas of precipitation are seen elsewhere. The latest ASCAT data pass shows strong trades across the central Caribbean between 67W-79W, south of 18N, with fresh trades elsewhere from the Lesser Antilles to the coast of Nicaragua. Near-gale force winds are seen within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia, south of 13N and east of 77.5W. Moderate trades are in the NW Caribbean, except for fresh in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas range from 8-11 ft in the south-central to SW Caribbean, 5-8 ft in the E Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and 2-4 ft in the extreme NW Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure across the Atlantic will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through the 5-day forecast period, with winds pulsing to gale-force near the coast of Colombia tonight and Wed night. Fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the E and central Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected across the Windward Passage through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 50W: A cold front extends from 32N59W to 30N70W. The front transitions to a warm front from 30N70W to St. Augustine Florida. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are near the warm front. The front will lift north of the area today. 1028 mb high pressure centered near 30N54W extends surface ridging to the NW Bahamas. The latest ASCAT data pass shows gentle to moderate winds prevailing from 25N to the front, between 50W-80W. Fresh trades extend south of 24N to the Greater Antilles. Seas of 4-8 ft prevail across the W Atlantic. For the forecast, the high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic will build along 29N over the next day or so. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail south of the ridge, with fresh to strong winds near the Windward Passage mainly at night through Thu night. A cold front is forecast to move off NE Florida Wed night into Thu. The front will extend from near Bermuda to western Cuba on Fri, and from 32N61W to central Cuba Sat. Fresh to strong winds with seas building to 7-10 ft are expected in the wake of the front. Farther east, a cold front extends from 32N26W to 26N31W to 24N39W to 24N47W. ASCAT shows fresh to strong winds on both sides of the front, north of 26N between 24W-38W. Fresh to strong trades prevail across the tropical Atlantic from 06N-21N between 35W-60W. Seas of 12-17 ft in large NW-N swell will affect waters north of 26N between 23W-38W through Wed morning. $$ Hagen