000 AXNT20 KNHC 301011 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Mar 30 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient prevails across the south-central Caribbean between high pressure north of the basin and lower pressure over northern Colombia. This gradient will continue to support fresh to near gale force winds offshore of northern Colombia, pulsing to gale-force during the overnight and early morning hours. These conditions are expected to continue through Wed night. Seas will peak around 13 ft during the late night/early morning hours with the gale force winds. Please read the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center on the website: www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 10N14W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 02S38W. Scattered showers are noted within 90 nm on either side of the boundaries. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from 28N82W to 28N84W, then transitions to a warm front from that point to 29N90W to 28N97W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted along and north of the front affecting northern Florida and the waters east of 90W. Scatterometer data reveals gentle to moderate E winds are across most of the basin with the exception of the Bay of Campeche where moderate to fresh NE-N winds prevail. Seas range from 1-3 ft in the eastern half of the basin, while 3-6 ft prevail elsewhere except over the Bay of Campeche where latest observations depict seas reaching 7 ft. The frontal boundaries over the NE gulf will continue weakening today. The next cold front will move off the Texas coast by Wed evening. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected behind the front with gale-force winds developing near Tampico and Veracruz on Thu morning and will continue through Thu night. Winds across the Gulf will diminish by the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trades in the eastern Caribbean, strong to near gale force winds in the central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds in the western Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted off the coast of Costa Rica, otherwise, no significant precipitation is present across the basin. Seas range from 7-11 ft across the eastern and central Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and 1-3 ft in the extreme NW Caribbean. High pressure across the Atlantic will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds over south-central Caribbean through the forecast period, with winds pulsing to gale-force near the coast of Colombia at night through Wed night. Fresh trade winds will prevail across the E and central Caribbean. Fresh NE winds are expected across the Windward Passage through Thu night. Winds will increase to fresh to strong as a cold front approaches the Yucatan Passage and the NW Caribbean on Thu night. These conditions will prevail through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The tail end of a cold front extends across the western Atlantic, transitioning to a stationary front from 30N73W to 28N81W. Scattered showers are noted along the boundaries. To the east, a surface ridge is anchored by a 1027 mb high pressure centered near 33N46W. A cold front extends across the east Atlantic from 31N29W to 26N47W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail S of 20N with seas in the 7 to 10 ft range. Gentle to moderate NE winds are N of 20 N with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. The frontal boundaries across the west Atlantic will weaken and lift northward today. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail south of the ridge, with fresh to strong winds near the Windward Passage mainly at night through Thu night. Another cold front is forecast to move off NE Florida Wed night into Thu, stretching from near Bermuda to central Cuba on Fri. Fresh to strong winds with building seas are expected in the wake of the front. Conditions will improve by late Fri into Sat. $$ ERA