000 AXNT20 KNHC 300547 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Mar 30 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient developing across the south-central Caribbean between high pressure north of the basin and lower pressure over northern Colombia will continue to support fresh to near gale force winds offshore of northern Colombia, pulsing to gale-force during the overnight and early morning hours. These conditions are expected to continue through Thu night. Seas will peak around 13 ft during the late night/early morning hours with the gale force winds. Please read the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center on the website: www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 05N23W to 00N39W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 90 nm on either side of the boundaries between the coast of Africa to 20W and between 32W to 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from near Clearwater, Florida into the central Gulf where the stalled front is beginning to lift north as a warm front as of 0300 UTC. Scattered showers and thunderstorms prevail north of the front within 120 nm of the Alabama coastline and the Florida Panhandle. Scatterometer data reveals gentle to moderate E winds are across most of the basin with the exception of the Bay of Campeche where NE-N winds are moderate to fresh. Seas range from 1-3 ft in the eastern Gulf and 3-6 ft elsewhere reaching 7 ft in the extreme SW Gulf. The stationary front is expected to retreat northward as a warm front and move inland tonight. The next cold front will move off the Texas coast by Wed evening. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected behind the front with gale-force winds developing behind the front near Tampico and Veracruz on Thu morning and will continue through Thu night. Winds across the Gulf will diminish by the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean. An ASCAT pass from 0200 UTC noted fresh to strong trades in the eastern Caribbean, strong to near gale force winds in the central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds in the western Caribbean. Some showers and thunderstorms are noted off the coast of Costa Rica, otherwise, no significant precipitation is present across the basin. Seas range from 7-11 ft across the eastern and central Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and 1-3 ft in the extreme NW Caribbean. High pressure across the Atlantic will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds over south-central Caribbean through the forecast period, with winds pulsing to gale-force near the coast of Colombia at night. Fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the E and central Caribbean. Fresh NE winds are expected across the Windward Passage through Thu night. Winds will increase to fresh to strong as a cold front approaches the Yucatan Passage and the NW Caribbean Thu night through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front has entered the western Atlantic today, but has begun to stall, and extends from 32N68W to the central coast of Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted along and in the vicinity of the front. To the east, a surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1029 mb high pressure bridging across a cold front and into the central Atlantic near 27N54W. The cold front enters the forecast area from 32N31W to 27N40W to 28N51W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail S of 20N with seas in the 7 to 10 ft range. Gentle to locally moderate NE winds are N of 20 N with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. The cold front across the W Atlantic will stall and lift northward tonight. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail south of the ridge, with fresh to strong winds near the Windward Passage mainly at night through Wed night. Another cold front is forecast to move off NE Florida Wed night into Thu reaching from near Bermuda to central Cuba on Fri. Fresh to strong winds with building seas are expected in the wake of the front. Conditions will improve by late Fri into Sat. $$ Mora