000 AXNT20 KNHC 292303 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Mar 30 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2110 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient developing across he south-central Caribbean between high pressure north of the basin and lower pressure over northern Colombia will continue to support fresh to near gale force winds offshore of northern Colombia, pulsing to gale-force during the overnight and early morning hours. These conditions are expected to continue through Thu night. Seas will peak around 13 ft during the late night/early morning hours with the gale force winds. Please read the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center on the website: www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 07N12W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03.5N20W to the coast of NE Brazil near 02S43W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 300 nm on either sides of the boundaries, with moderate convection concentrated from the Equator to 05N between 20W-35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front has stalled across the basin and extends from near the mouth of Tampa Bay to 25N93.5W, where it remains stationary to 18N94W. Scattered showers prevailed along and north of the front north of 27.5N. Midday scatterometer data showed strong NW winds over the western Gulf from the Bay of Campeche west of 94W and from 25N-27N and west of 90W. A surface trough is noted ahead of the front in the eastern Bay of Campeche from 18N93W to 23N90W. Light to gentle variable winds are noted southeast of the front across the remainder of the area. The front is expected to retreat northward as a warm front and move inland tonight. The next cold front will move off the Texas coast by Wed evening. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected behind the next front with gale-force winds developing behind the front near Tampico and Veracruz on Thu morning, and continue through Thu night. Winds across the Gulf will diminish by the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean. Midday scatterometer data depicted fresh to strong easterly trades across central Caribbean, while moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere. Fresh winds were also noted in the Gulf of Honduras and across the approach to the WindWard Passage. Seas remain in the 8-10 ft range in the central Caribbean, the highest offshore of northern Colombia, and in the 5-7 ft range elsewhere. Fair weather conditions prevail across the region, with quick- moving showers embedded in the trade wind flow. High pressure across the Atlantic will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds over south-central Caribbean through the forecast period, with winds pulsing to gale-force near the coast of Colombia at night. Fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the E and central Caribbean. Fresh NE winds are expected across the Windward Passage through Wed night. Winds will increase fresh to strong as a cold front approaches the Yucatan Passage Thu night into Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front has entered the western Atlantic today, but has begun to stall, and extends from 31N74W to 27.5N80W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted along and in the vicinity of the front. To the east, a surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1024 mb high pressure bridging across a cold front and into the central Atlantic near 27N54W. The cold front enters the forecast area from 31N34W to 27.5N45W to 31N54W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail S of 24N with seas in the 6 to 9 ft range. Gentle to locally moderate NE winds are N of 25N with seas in the 3 to 6 ft range. A 1014 mb low previously over the Canary Islands has shifted NE to near 34N13W. The cold front across the W Atlantic will stall and lift northward tonight. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail south of the ridge, with fresh to strong winds near the Windward Passage mainly at night through Wed night. Another cold front is forecast to move off NE Florida Wed night into Thu reaching from near Bermuda to central Cuba on Fri. Fresh to strong winds with building seas are expected in the wake of the front. $$ Stripling