000 AXNT20 KNHC 282223 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Mar 29 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2250 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient in the south- central Caribbean between high pressure north of the basin and lower pressure over northern Colombia will continue to support fresh to near gale force winds offshore of northern Colombia, pulsing to gale-force during the overnight and early morning hours. These conditions are expected to continue through the middle of the week. Seas will peak around 13 ft during the late night/early morning hours with the gale force winds. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front over the western Gulf of Mexico will continue to move SE across the area, NW winds reaching gale-force are expected to develop S of 24N west of the front this afternoon and continue through Monday morning. Seas will range between 8-12 ft with the strongest winds. Please read the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center on the website: www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details on these warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 01N24W. The ITCZ continues from 01N24W to 01S37W. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02S to 05N E of 26W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect. A cold front extends from 29N91W to 25N97W, moving southeastward with latest ASCAT pass showing fresh to strong northerly winds along the Texas coast north of South Padre Island to Galveston. Scattered showers and isolated strong thunderstorms are noted within 90 n mi of the front. A surface ridge extends from the Atlantic and across the eastern two-thirds of the basin supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the area. Patchy dense fog is still noted over portions of the extreme western Gulf to the south of the cold front. The cold front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz Mexico tonight. Strong to gale force northerly winds and building seas will follow the front through early Mon morning. The front will extend from central Florida to central Bay of Campeche on Mon afternoon, become stationary late on Mon, then lift northward Mon night into Tue while weakening. A second cold front will move off the Texas coast by Wed evening. Fresh to strong winds are expected behind the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean. Latest scatterometer data depicts near-gale-force winds across the south-central Caribbean within 90 nm of the Colombia coast. Fresh to strong trades are noted across much of the central Caribbean, the approach to the WindWard Passage, and southwest of Puerto Rico. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere in the basin. Seas are in the 8-9 ft range in the central Caribbean, except 9-13 ft offshore of northern Colombia, and mainly in the 5-7 ft range elsewhere. Fair weather conditions prevail across the region, with quick-moving showers embedded in the trade wind flow. High pressure across the Atlantic will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds over south-central Caribbean through the forecast period, with winds pulsing to gale-force near the coast of Colombia at night. Fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the E and central Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds will continue in the Gulf of Honduras through early Mon. Mainly fresh NE winds are expected across the Windward Passage through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge prevails across most of the basin inside the discussion area, anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 28N42W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail S of 24N W of 25W with seas in the 7 to 10 ft range. Gentle to locally moderate winds are N of 24N and W of 25W with seas in the 3 to 6 ft range. Over the extreme eastern Atlantic, a 1012 mb low is centered near the Canary Islands at 29N17W. Isolated moderate convection is within 100 nmi of the low. Moderate to fresh cyclonic winds are noted N of 25N and E of 25W. The cold front over the Gulf of Mexico will move off the southeastern U.S. coast tonight, reach from 31N72W to central Florida Mon afternoon, stall and weaken over the north waters on Mon night, then lift northward on Tue. Moderate to fresh winds will continue south of the ridge, with fresh to strong winds near the Windward Passage mainly at night through Wed night. Another cold front is forecast to move off NE Florida Wed night into Thu reaching from near Bermuda to central Cuba on Fri. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the wake of the front. $$ Torres