000 AXNT20 KNHC 270553 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Mar 27 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Gale-force winds are present, near the coast of Colombia. A tight pressure gradient in the south central Caribbean Sea, between high pressure to the north of the area and lower pressure that is in northern Colombia, will support pulsing winds to gale-force, during the overnight into the early morning hours, for the next couple of days. The sea heights will range from 8 feet to 11 feet. Please, read the NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, on the website: www.hurricanes.gov/marine, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 08N12W, to 04N15W, and to 01N19W. The ITCZ continues from 01N19W, to the Equator along 25W/26W, to 01S30W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 03N southward between 22W and 28W. A surface trough is to the south of the Equator, along 06S34W 03S34W 02S41W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 45 nm on either side of the line that runs from: 03S34W, to the Equator along 36W, to 01N38W 03N41W 04N45W 03N48W 03N50W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A warm front has moved inland, already, into Texas. A surface ridge passes through central Florida, toward the west central Gulf of Mexico. SW Louisiana, and it continues southwestward to the coast of Mexico near 20N97W. A surface trough runs the length of the Texas Gulf coastal plains. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds are to the north and northwest of the line that runs from the Florida Big Bend, to the central Gulf of Mexico, to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Rainshowers are possible from the cold front northwestward. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula overnight, and shift into the south central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Sunday morning. The cold front will reach from the NE Gulf of Mexico to the Bay of Campeche on Monday; become stationary on Tuesday morning; then move northward as a weak warm front on Tuesday and Tuesday night. A cold front is expected to move off the Texas coast on Wednesday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Comparatively drier air in subsidence spans the entire Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, to Panama about 45 nm to the NW of the Colombia/Panama border, beyond 07N80W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers, in individual clusters, are in Colombia within 280 nm to the SSE of the surface trough, between the border of Colombia/Venezuela and 77W. Please refer to the forecasts and the weather bulletins from your local meteorological offices for more details. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow. High pressure in the west central Atlantic Ocean will continue through Wednesday. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist in the central Caribbean Sea through Wednesday night. The wind speeds will be pulsing to gale-force near the coast of Colombia on each night. Fresh trade winds will prevail to the south of 18N through Wednesday. Fresh to strong winds will continue in the Gulf of Honduras through early Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle level to upper level trough is on top of a 32N57W 21N59W surface trough. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 180 nm on either side of the surface trough. A 1010 mb low pressure center is about 170 nm to the NNW of the Canary Islands, and about 90 nm to the SW of the Madeira Archipelago. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 29N northward from 22W eastward. A 1034 mb high pressure center is near 34N41W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow is between the Canary Islands low pressure center and the 32N57W 21N59W surface trough. A surface ridge is along 31N62W to 29N71W, beyond central Florida, and into the Gulf of Mexico. The current ridge along 29N will prevail through the weekend. A cold front will move off the southeastern U.S.A. coast on Sunday night. The front will reach from 31N72W to central Florida on Monday afternoon; stall and weaken on Tuesday; then move northward on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Moderate to fresh winds will continue to the south of the ridge, with the highest winds expected near the Windward Passage into early next week. $$ mt/DM