000 AXNT20 KNHC 261015 RRA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Mar 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to 03S34W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted south of 04N between 16W and 47W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across the western Gulf of Mexico from 30N93W in SW Louisiana to 20N97W near Veracruz in southern Mexico. A surface trough is analyzed along 91W/92W south of 23N into the eastern Bay of Campeche. Scatterometer data earlier this morning showed fresh to strong SE winds ahead of the trough and stationary front, south of 25N in the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the eastern Gulf, 6 to 8 ft in the central Gulf, and 3-6 ft in the western Gulf. Satellite imagery shows isolated shower activity along the frontal boundary. The stationary front will gradually weaken through tonight. SE winds ahead of the front, north of the Yucatan peninsula, will diminish today. A cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, reach from the NE Gulf to the Bay of Campeche on Monday, become stationary Tuesday morning, then lift northward as a weak warm front Tuesday and Tuesday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scatterometer data earlier this morning showed fresh to strong NE to E winds across the central Caribbean Sea. High pressure north of the region is enhancing trade winds in this particular region. Highest winds to 30 kt were observed north of Honduras in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 8-11 ft in the south-central Caribbean, 7 to 8 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, and 4 to 7 ft elsewhere across the basin. Satellite imagery indicates isolated shower activity across the region, embedded in the large scale trade wind flow. The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and low pressure over northern Colombia will support fresh to strong winds across the south-central Caribbean the next several day, with highest winds near the coast of Colombia at night through Tuesday night. Maximum seas will build to 10-12 ft during each period of near- gale force winds. Fresh to strong trade winds will expand in coverage this weekend to include the rest of the east-central Caribbean. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will continue in the Gulf of Honduras through early Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1026 mb high pressure centered near Bermuda extends ridging across the western Atlantic, with gentle winds north of 24N between 58W-78W and moderate to locally fresh trades near the Greater Antilles. Seas of 4-5 ft and fair weather conditions prevail across most of the western Atlantic. A surface trough is analyzed from 31N58W to 24N60W, with isolated showers associated with the feature. In the east Atlantic, a 1012 mb low pressure is just north of the Canary Islands near 30N17W. This low is expected to deepen and moves northward. Gale force winds are expected to develop this morning near the Madeira Islands in association with this low. Expect seas of 10-13 ft this weekend north of 27N and east of 25W, due to this system. High pressure will prevail across the northern waters through Sunday. A cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast Sunday night, reach from 31N74W to northern Florida on Monday, then stall and weaken along 30N on Tuesday. Moderate to fresh winds will continue south of the ridge, with the highest winds expected near the Windward Passage into early next week. $$ Mundell