000
AXNT20 KNHC 260554
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Mar 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of 
Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 02N20W. The ITCZ 
continues from 02N20W, to the Equator along 22W, to 02S27W, and 
03S34W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, 
and isolated strong, is within 60 nm on either side of the 
monsoon trough between 16W and 20W, and from 02N to 05N between 
33W and 40W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to 
the south of the line that runs from 05N40W to 02N at the coast 
of Brazil from 40W westward to Brazil. Isolated moderate to 
locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through SW Louisiana, and it continues 
southwestward to the coast of Mexico near 20N97W. A surface 
trough runs the length of the Texas Gulf coastal plains. 
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds are to the 
north and northwest of the line that runs from the Florida Big 
Bend, to the central Gulf of Mexico, to the SW corner of the 
Gulf of Mexico.  Rainshowers are possible from the cold front 
northwestward.

The current western Gulf of Mexico cold front will stall, and 
weaken, through Friday. Fresh to strong SE winds are expected in 
advance of the front, to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula. A 
second cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf of Mexico 
on Sunday. The second cold front will reach from the NE Gulf of 
Mexico to the Bay of Campeche on Monday, and become stationary.
It will move northward as a weak warm front on Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is in the Caribbean Sea, 
to the north of the line that runs from 14N60W to the coast of 
Venezuela near 11.5N69W.

A surface trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, to Panama 
about 45 nm to the NW of the Colombia/Panama border, beyond 
07.5N80.5W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: 
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers, in 
individual clusters, are in Colombia within 450 nm to the SSE of 
the surface trough. Please refer to the forecasts and the 
weather bulletins from your local meteorological offices for 
more details.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate 
rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and 
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the 
surface-to-low level wind flow.

High pressure in the western Atlantic Ocean will prevail through 
the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will persist in the south 
central Caribbean Sea through Tuesday. The fastest wind speeds 
will be expected near the coast of Colombia at night. Fresh to 
strong trade winds will expand in coverage this weekend in order 
to include the rest of the east central Caribbean Sea. Fresh to 
strong winds will continue in the Gulf of Honduras through early 
Monday. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle level to upper level trough is spreading cyclonic wind 
flow from 20N northward between 50W and 60W. A surface trough is 
along 30N59W 23N60W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to 
isolated strong is from 23N northward between 50W and the 
surface trough. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 
20N northward between 50W and 65W. 

A 1011 mb low pressure center is about 90 nm to the NNW of the 
Canary Islands. A surface trough extends from the 1011 mb low 
pressure center to the southern part of the Western Sahara.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and 
possible rainshowers are within 500 nm to the NE of the 1011 mb 
low pressure center and the surface trough. 

A 1018 mb low pressure center is near 29N28W. A surface trough 
extends from the 1018 mb low pressure center to 31N24W. 
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and 
isolated strong is from 30N to 33N between 20W and 25W. Broken 
to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are 
from 25N northward between 23W and 34W.

High pressure will prevail in the northern waters through 
Sunday. A cold front will move off the southeastern U.S.A. coast 
on Sunday night. The cold front will reach from 31N74W to 
northern Florida on Monday, then stall and weaken along 30N on 
Tuesday. Moderate to fresh winds will continue to the south of 
the ridge, with the highest winds expected near the Windward 
Passage, into early next week. 

$$
mt/DM