000 AXNT20 KNHC 251721 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The Bermuda High will build across the western Atlantic through the remainder of the week and prevail through the weekend. The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and climatological low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong winds across the south Central Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale force off Colombia each night through at least Mon night. Seas will build to 10-12 ft during the period of gale force winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 01N31W to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04S-05N between 00W-13W. Similar convection is seen along and within 210 nm N of the ITCZ between 20W-39W. Similar convection is also noted within 120 nm offshore the coast of Brazil from 05S-02N between 37W-51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front has entered the western Gulf of Mexico, and extends from just east of Galveston Bay near 29.5N 94.5W SSW to north of Tampico Mexico near 23N98W as of 25/1500 UTC. Isolated to scattered showers are along and east of the front, mainly north of 27N. Ahead of the front, the latest ASCAT pass shows strong S winds over the central Gulf of Mexico, where buoy 42395 in Walker Ridge is reporting a significant wave height of 11 ft at 25/1540 UTC. Behind the front, the latest buoy and platform data indicate that fresh to locally strong N winds have developed along and just offshore of the Texas coast late this morning. A brief period of near gale force N winds is expected this afternoon behind the front offshore of Tampico. The front will stall and weaken late tonight. The remnant boundary will then shift westward into Mexico and southern Texas Fri through Sat. Another cold front will move into the Gulf of Mexico by Sunday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the pulsing of gale force winds off he coast of Colombia starting late tonight. Mid to upper-level ridging prevails over the western Caribbean. As a result, GOES-16 mid-level water vapor imagery shows dry air across the basin. The latest ASCAT data pass reveals fresh trades across much of the basin south of 17N between 65W-80W. Strong trades are likely occurring offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate wind speeds prevail elsewhere. NOAA buoy 42056 near 20N85W is measuring 23 kt SE winds with 6 ft seas. Seas are likely 7-9 ft offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras, and 4-7 ft across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, high pressure will build over the western Atlantic and prevail through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will persist over the south-central Caribbean, with gale-force winds pulsing near the coast of Colombia each night from tonight through at least Mon night. Fresh to strong trade winds will expand in coverage this weekend to the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1025 mb high pressure centered near Bermuda extends ridging across the western Atlantic, with gentle wind speeds north of 24N between 58W-78W and moderate to locally fresh trades closer to the Greater Antilles. Seas of 3-5 ft prevail across the W Atlantic. Most of the area between 62W-80W is currently experiencing mostly clear skies. High pressure ridging will build westward along 29N through Fri and change little through the weekend. Moderate to fresh winds will continue south of the ridge, with winds strengthening over the approach to the Windward passage tonight into early next week. A surface trough extends from 22N61W to 31N58W. A mid to upper-level trough is over the same area. Upper-level diffluence to the east of the trough axis is inducing scattered moderate showers and tstorms from 24N-32N between 53W-59W. A 1035 mb high north of the area near 39N43W extends broad ridging southward, to the east of the aforementioned trough. Trade winds are fresh to locally strong south of the high, from 05N-30N between 33W-53W, with seas of 6-9 ft. In the NE Atlantic, a 1014 mb low pressure has formed south of the Canary Islands near 26N 17.5W. This low is expected to deepen as it moves N and crosses the Canary Islands tonight. Gale force winds are expected to develop Friday morning near and just west of the Madeira Islands, to the north of 32N, in association with this low. Expect seas of 10-13 ft this weekend north of 27N and east of 27W, in N to NE swell, due to this system. $$ Hagen