000 AXNT20 KNHC 250545 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Mar 25 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea GALE WARNING: The Bermuda High will build across the western Atlantic Ocean, through the remainder of the week, and prevail through the weekend. The pressure gradient, between the Bermuda High and climatological low pressure that is in Colombia, will produce fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea, beginning on Thursday. It is expected for the wind speeds to pulse to gale-force on each night, from Thursday night through at least Sunday night. The sea heights will build to heights that will range from 10 feet to 12 feet during the period of the gale-force winds. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center, at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W, curving to 07N15W and 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W, to the Equator along 33W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 06W eastward, and within 150 nm of the coast of South America between 41W and 50W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 06N southward from 50W eastward, and from 10N southward between 50W and 60W. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface low pressure is in the northern parts of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends from the Florida coast near 29N85W, southwestward, to the coast of Texas near 27N. The trough is about 75 nm offshore, from Florida to Texas. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds are to the north of the line that runs from the coast of Mexico near 22N, to 24N90W, to the coast of SW Florida near 25N. Rainshowers are possible along and to the north of the line. A surface trough in the northern Gulf of Mexico will move northward tonight. A high pressure ridge that is building in the E Gulf of Mexico, and persistent low pressure that is in NE Mexico, will support fresh to strong SE winds in the western and central Gulf of Mexico, through the end of the week. A cold front will move into the W Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, where it will stall and weaken. The remnant boundary then will shift westward into Mexico and southern Texas, from Friday into Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Comparatively drier air in subsidence is in the Caribbean Sea, to the north of the line from 16N60W to 12N71W. A surface trough is along 10N74W in northern Colombia, to Panama about 40 nm to the NW of the Colombia/Panama border, beyond 07N80W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: numerous strong rainshowers are from 08N to 09N between 71W and 73W, and from 04N to 06N between 76W and 78W. Other isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 200 nm to 240 nm to the SE of the surface trough. Please refer to the forecasts and the weather bulletins from your local meteorological offices for more details. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow. High pressure will build in the western Atlantic Ocean through the end of the week, and prevail through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will persist in the south central Caribbean Sea. Gale- force winds are expected to pulse near the coast of Colombia, on each night, from Thursday night through at least Monday night. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras through Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle level to upper level trough passes through 32N58W to 26N59W 23N64W, and to the Mona Passage. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 26N to 32N between 53W and 58W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are elsewhere from 22N northward between 49W and 60W. A surface trough passes through 32N27W to 28N30W to 24N36W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from 16N northward between 20W and 40W. A high pressure ridge will build westward across the northern waters through the end of the week, and persist through the weekend. Light to gentle winds will freshen in the southern waters this weekend, as the ridge builds and prevails. $$ mt