000 AXNT20 KNHC 241000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Mar 24 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea gale warning: High pressure will build across the western Atlantic through the week and prevail through the weekend. This will tighten the pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and climatological low pressure over Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will prevail over the south Central Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale force each night from Thu night through the weekend. Seas will build to 10-12 ft during the period of gale force winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 10N15W to 02N21W. The ITCZ continues from 02N21W to 01S33W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 20W and 33W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends across the northern Gulf. Active convection prevails south of eastern Louisiana and Mississippi. Latest surface observations indicate fresh to strong winds north of the surface trough. High pressure is building across the SW N Atlantic waters. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico is supporting fresh to strong winds over the central Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail over the western Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds prevail over the eastern Gulf. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the central Gulf, 3-5 ft over the NE Gulf, and 2-3 ft elsewhere. A surface trough over the northern Gulf will lift northward today. A high pressure ridge building over the E Gulf and persistent low pressure near the coast of Mexico will support fresh to strong SE winds over the western and central Gulf through the end of the week. A cold front will move into the W Gulf Thu where it will stall and weaken. The remnant boundary will shift westward into Mexico and southern Texas Fri into Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the special features section above for more on pulsing gale force winds off the coast of Colombia starting Thu night. High pressure has started to build into the SW N Atlantic waters. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean as well as the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range over the south central Caribbean, 3-5 ft over the north central and eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft over the NW Caribbean. High pressure will continue to build over the western Atlantic through the end of the week into the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will persist over the south- central Caribbean, with gale- force winds pulsing near the coast of Colombia each night from Thu night through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras through Sun. The building high pressure will also strengthen winds over the Windward passage as well as south of Hispaniola starting late Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A ridge of high pressure has started to build westward across the western Atlantic waters along 30N from 1034 mb high pressure centered near 36N43W. An area of fresh to strong winds prevails over the discussion waters south of this high pressure center, north of 26N between 32W and 50W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere across the waters east of 60W, with light to gentle winds over the waters west of 60W. Seas in the 5-8 ft range prevail over the open waters north of 20N, and in the 5-7 ft range south of 20N. For the forecast west of 65W, a high pressure ridge will continue to build westward across the northern waters through the end of the week and persist into this weekend. Light to gentle winds will freshen over the southern waters later this week through the weekend as the ridge builds and prevails. $$ AL