000 AXNT20 KNHC 240557 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Mar 24 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 11N15W, curving to 04N17W, and to 03N23W. The ITCZ continues from 03N23W to 02N26W, crossing the Equator along 28W, to 01S30W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm to the north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 18W and 30W, and from 03N southward between 30W and 35W. Numerous strong is from 01N to 03N between 49W and Brazil. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 120 nm of the coast of South America between 44W and 60W. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface low pressure is in the northern parts of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends from the Florida Big Bend, to 140 nm to the south of southern Mississippi, to 60 nm to the south of SE Louisiana, to 140 nm to the SSW of the upper Texas Gulf coast. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is in SE Louisiana. Isolated moderate is to the north of the line that runs from the coast of Mexico near 22N, to 26N90W, beyond the Florida Big Bend. A stationary front is inland, from SW Louisiana, into the Texas coastal plains, to the Deep South of Texas. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. A high pressure ridge, building in the NE Gulf of Mexico, and persistent low pressure near the coast of Mexico, will support increasing SE winds and building seas in the western and central sections of the Gulf of Mexico through midweek. A cold front will be near the Texas coast until Thursday, when it will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico, before stalling by the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Comparatively drier air in subsidence is in the Caribbean Sea, to the north of the line from the Mona Passage, to 12N80W, across the northernmost sections of Nicaragua. A surface trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, through 80W in Panama, beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the coastal plains of Colombia, within 100 nm of the coast. Please refer to the forecasts and the weather bulletins from your local meteorological offices for more details. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow. High pressure will build in the western Atlantic Ocean through late week. Fresh to strong winds will persist in the south central Caribbean Sea. Gale-force winds are forecast to pulse near the coast of Colombia on Thursday night and Friday night. Expect increasing winds and building seas in the NW Caribbean Sea, including in the Gulf of Honduras, from Wednesday through Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1014 mb low pressure center is inland in Florida, about 25 nm to the NW of Lake Okeechobee in southern Florida. A surface trough extends from the 1014 mb low pressure center to 31N78W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 26N northward from 74W westward. Middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 55W and 70W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely scattered moderate, and isolated strong, are from 20N northward between 47W and 66W. A dissipating cold front is along 31N30W to 26N42W to 32N52W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of the dissipating cold front. A high pressure ridge will build westward across the northern waters through midweek, and persist into this weekend. Light to gentle winds will freshen in the southern waters later this week as the ridge builds. $$ mt