000 AXNT20 KNHC 232211 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Mar 24 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2140 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W to 01S21W. The ITCZ continues from 01S21W to the Brazil near 04S44W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N-04N between 08W-13W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends across the eastern and central Gulf waters, while a weak low and surface trough are located over the Gulfstream east of South Florida. A cold front extends from north-central Louisiana to along the Texas coast and into northeast Mexico near 26N101W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 60-90 nm ahead of the cold front with additional activity across the lower Mississippi Valley into western Georgia. A trough is analyzed in the western Gulf ahead of the front, from 27N96W to 20N96W. The pressure gradient across the basin is supporting moderate to fresh winds across the waters between 86W-94W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 4-7 ft west of 87W, and 3 ft or less east of 87W. The high pressure ridge will build over the northeast Gulf while persistent low pressure near the coast of Mexico will combine to support increasing SE winds and building seas over the western and central Gulf through midweek. The cold front will stall and be near the Texas coast until Thu, when it will move into the northwest Gulf, before stalling again for the end of the week. High pressure ridging is forecast dominate this weekend. A weak cold front may drop south across the eastern Gulf by the end of the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak surface ridge prevails north of the area. The resultant weak gradient is supporting moderate to fresh winds over the south-central and eastern Caribbean, as well as in the northwest Caribbean west of 85W. Gentle to moderate trades are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range south of 18N and east of 77W, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. Mainly fair weather is noted on satellite imagery. High pressure will build over the western Atlantic through late week. Fresh to strong winds will persist over the south-central Caribbean, with gale-force winds forecast to pulse each night near the coast of Colombia Thu night through the weekend. Seas will build to around 12 ft during these winds northwest of the coast of Colombia. Expect increasing winds and building seas over the northwest Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras, from Wed through Fri. Fresh to strong winds will pulse across the approach and through the Windward Passage Thu night through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1012 mb surface low is centered east-southeast of the Grand Strand of South Carolina near 32N76W with a trough extending south-southwest to a 1015 mb low located over the Gulfstream between Jupiter, Florida and the northern Bahamas. No significant convection is noted near these features. High pressure prevails elsewhere. Gentle to moderate winds are noted off the coast of northeast Florida, with mainly gentle southerly return flow elsewhere west of 65W. NE swell continues off the coast of NE Florida, where seas are in the 6-7 ft range. Elsewhere, seas are in the 5-6 ft range over the open waters west of 65W. To the east, a cold front extends from 32N30W to 29N40W to 32N50W. No significant convection is noted near the front, however scattered moderate convection is noted from 22N-32N between 55W- 65W ahead of a mid-upper level trough. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted north of 22N and between 30W-55W as high pressure builds north of the boundary, with moderate to fresh trades south of 22N. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range north of 22N, and 5-7 ft south of 22N. For the forecast west of 65W, a high pressure ridge will build westward across the northern waters through midweek and persist into this weekend. Light to gentle winds will freshen over the southern waters later this week as the ridge builds. A cold front may drop into the waters east of Florida by the end of the weekend. $$ Lewitsky