000
AXNT20 KNHC 231710
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Mar 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 
07N12W to 01N17W to 00N23W. The ITCZ continues from 00N23W to 
02N43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the 
monsoon 
trough and east of 20W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the eastern Gulf waters, while a 
weak low and surface trough are over South Florida. To the north, 
the tail end of a warm front extends from 30N89W to 29N87W. A pre-
frontal trough extends from 30N94W to 27N97W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted along the trough over the eastern half of the 
trough.  To the southwest, a 1004 mb surface low is centered near 
22N97W. The pressure gradient generated across the basin is 
supporting fresh to strong winds over much of the waters west of 
89W, while gentle to moderate winds are noted east of 89W. Seas are 
in the 5-7 ft range west of 90W, and 2-4 ft east of 90W. 

The surface ridge will continue supporting increasing SE winds 
and building seas over the western and central Gulf through midweek. 
A cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf Thu, then stall 
and weaken over the central Gulf Fri into this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak surface ridge prevails north of the area. The resultant
weak gradient is supporting moderate to fresh winds over the south 
central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 
in the 4-6 ft range over much of the Caribbean waters east of 80W. 
Seas are in the 1-3 ft range over the W Caribbean.

High pressure will build over the western Atlantic
through late week. Fresh to strong winds will persist over the 
south-central Caribbean, with gale-force winds likely pulsing 
each night near the coast of Colombia starting on Thu night into 
the weekend. Expect increasing winds and building seas over the
NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras, from Wed through 
Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1015 mb surface low is centered over the west Atlantic near 
27N79W. A surface trough extends for the low to a 1012 mb low 
centered near 33N76W. High pressure prevails elsewhere. Gentle to 
moderate winds are noted off the coast of NE Florida, with gentle to 
moderate winds elsewhere west of 60W. NE swell continues off the 
coast of NE Florida, where seas are in the 7-9 ft range. Elsewhere, 
seas are in the 5-6 ft range over the open waters west of 60W. East 
of 60W, moderate to fresh winds prevail. Seas are in the 7-8 ft 
range north of 28N between 45-55W, and 4-7 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast west of 65W, a high pressure ridge will build 
westward across the northern waters through midweek and persist 
into this weekend. Light to gentle winds will freshen over the 
southern waters later this week as the ridge builds. NE swell will 
subside off the coast of NE Florida today. No other significant 
swell is expected to propagate into the area through the remainder 
of the week. 

$$
ERA