000
AXNT20 KNHC 231000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Mar 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 
11N15W to 05N18W to 02N23W. The ITCZ continues from 02N23W to 
02S39W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
07S-05N, east of 20W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 00N to 04N between 23W and 34W.  

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends into the NE Gulf of Mexico from the SE 
United States, while a weak low and surface trough are over South 
Florida. The pressure gradient between this ridge and low pressure
over Mexico is supporting fresh to strong winds over much of the
waters west of 89W, gentle to moderate winds are noted east of
89W. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range west of 90W, and 2-4 ft east of
90W. 

The high pressure ridge building over the NE Gulf and persistent 
low pressure near the coast of Mexico will continue to support 
increasing SE winds and building seas over the western and central
Gulf through midweek. A cold front is expected to move into the 
NW Gulf on Thu, then stall and weaken over the central Gulf Fri 
into this weekend. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak surface ridge prevails north of the area. The resultant
weak gradient is supporting moderate to fresh winds over the south
central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas
are in the 4-6 ft range over much of the Caribbean waters east of
80W. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range over much of the NW Caribbean,
except reaching 4 ft over the Gulf of Honduras.

High pressure will build over the western Atlantic through late 
this week. Fresh to strong winds will persist over the south-
central Caribbean, with gale-force winds possibly pulsing each 
night near the coast of Colombia Thu night into this weekend. 
Expect increasing winds and building seas over the NW Caribbean, 
including the Gulf of Honduras, from Wed through Fri. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends across the waters east of Florida, with
high pressure prevailing elsewhere. Gentle to moderate winds are
noted off the coast of NE Florida, with gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere west of 60W. NE swell continues off the coast of NE
Florida, where seas are in the 8-10 ft range. Elsewhere, seas are
in the 5-6 ft range over the open waters west of 60W. East of 60W,
moderate to fresh winds prevail. Seas are in the 7-8 ft range
north of 28N between 45-55W, and 4-7 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast west of 65W, a high pressure ridge will build 
westward across the northern waters through midweek and persist 
into this weekend. Light to gentle winds will freshen over the 
southern waters later this week as the ridge builds. NE swell will
subside off the coast of NE Florida today. No other significant 
swell is expected to propagate into the area through the remainder
of the week. 

$$
AL