000 AXNT20 KNHC 230510 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 05N18W to 02N23W. The ITCZ continues from 02N23W to 02S39W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 07S-08N, east of 20W. GULF OF MEXICO Weak surface ridging protrudes into the NE Gulf of Mexico from the SE United States, while a weak low and surface trough are over South Florida. Gentle winds are resulting from this weak flow over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, east of 86W, according to the latest ASCAT data pass. Much lower pressure is located over central Texas and eastern Mexico. This pressure gradient is resulting in fresh to strong SE to S return flow over the western and central Gulf of Mexico, where latest buoy observations indicate seas of 5 to 6 ft. Cloudiness and light scattered showers are seen currently extending off the Texas and western Louisiana coasts. Light smoke is evident across the far western Gulf due to agricultural fires in Mexico. Expect a continuation of fresh to strong winds over the central and western Gulf through mid-week as a similar synoptic setup persists. A cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf on Thu, then stall and weaken over the central Gulf Fri into this weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... The earlier front over the NW Caribbean has dissipated. A 1017 mb high pressure is centered over Cuba near 22.5N81W at 0300 UTC. Dry air is seen over the NW Caribbean on GOES-16 mid-level water vapor imagery. Isolated showers are evident near Haiti and eastern Cuba, as well as the far SW Caribbean. The latest ASCAT data pass shows gentle winds in the northern Caribbean, north of 16N between 63W-84W. Fresh trades are over the southern Caribbean south of 14.5N, and in the western Gulf of Honduras. Moderate trades are elsewhere. Seas are 2-4 ft in the northern Caribbean and 4-6 ft in the southern Caribbean, except up to 7 ft offshore Colombia. For the forecast, high pressure will build over the western Atlantic through late this week. Fresh to strong winds will persist over the south-central Caribbean, and near gale-force winds could pulse near the coast of Colombia Thu night into this weekend. Expect increasing winds and building seas over the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras, from Wed through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A mid to upper level trough over the western Atlantic is supporting a well defined 1009 mb low pressure off the Carolina coast near 32.5N76.5W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active north of 27N between 68W-75W along an associated weakening stationary front from 31N73W to the central Bahamas. The latest ASCAT data pass indicates fresh to strong NE winds off the coast of northeast Florida north of 30N, part of a low level jet of strong NE winds funneling between the low pressure and the coast. Mostly gentle winds are south of 29N and west of 66W across the western Atlantic. Seas are likely 8 to 12 ft off the northeast coast of Florida and 5 to 7 ft in the open waters west of 55W. Farther east, a cold front extends from 32N37W to 31N40W to 31N50W, then stationary to 32N57W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are within 180 nm N of the front. Broad ridging dominates the remainder of the Atlantic south of 30N east of 55W. Fresh northerly winds are east of the Canary Islands off the coast of Africa, with moderate trade winds elsewhere, and seas 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast area west of 65W, rough seas in NE swell will persist N of 29N and W of 77W through early this morning as a low pressure trough lingers off the Florida coast. Elsewhere, the weakening stationary front that extends from near 31N73W to the central Bahamas will dissipate early this morning. A high pressure ridge will build westward across the Atlantic through midweek and persist into this weekend. For the forecast in the eastern Atlantic, low pressure may form near the Canary Islands late in the week, increasing winds and seas north of 25N and east of 30W into the weekend. $$ Hagen