000 AXNT20 KNHC 220531 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 1026 mb high pressure centered near Atlanta Georgia and 1015 mb low pressure off the E coast of N Florida is inducing strong to near gale force NE winds with frequent gusts to gale force, to the north of 30.5N, and east of Georgia and Jacksonville FL. Sustained winds of gale force are north of 31N, according to a recent ASCAT pass. These winds are occurring north of 31N west of 75W. After 12Z this morning, the frequent gusts to gale force will end to the south of 31N. Seas to 9 ft are occurring in this area. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 11N15W to 04N19W to 01N25W. The ITCZ continues from 01N25W to 01.5S41W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05S-07N between 00W-20W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 00N- 03N between 25W-30W. Similar convection is along the coast of Brazil from the Equator to 03S. GULF OF MEXICO... A dissipating cold front extends from northern Cuba near 23N83W NW to 27N90W. Water vapor imagery continues to show dry air across most of the basin, which is inhibiting showers in the vicinity of the front. A surface trough extends from a 1015 mb low pressure near Daytona Beach Florida to 28N84.5W. Overcast low stratus clouds are over the E Gulf, north of 26N and east of 86W. A recent ASCAT pass shows strong NE winds off the Florida Panhandle between the Big Bend and Apalachicola, with fresh winds elsewhere over the NE Gulf of Mexico. Moderate E to SE winds cover the NW Gulf with gentle winds over the SW Gulf. The weakening cold front from western Cuba to the central Gulf will dissipate early this morning as it moves southward. High pressure building behind the front over the northeast Gulf will support increased E to SE winds and building seas over the western Gulf today, then over the central Gulf Tue and Wed as a cold front moves through Texas. The front will move into the northwest Gulf Thu and stall from the north central Gulf coast to the southwest Gulf Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 22/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from central Cuba near 22N78.5W to 21N81W to W Cuba near 22.5N84W. Ahead of the front, a surface trough extending from E Cuba to just west of Jamaica is inducing scattered showers and isolated tstorms over SE Cuba. During the early evening hours on Sunday, hail was observed in Camaguey Cuba during a thunderstorm. Elsewhere, satellite imagery suggests that some showers may be occurring near and over the Dominican Republic, while relatively dry air covers the SE Caribbean. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh N winds to the north of the cold front along the S coast of Cuba. Weak low pressure north of the basin east of Florida is allowing for a relaxed pressure gradient, producing moderate wind speeds over much of the basin, although fresh to strong winds prevail in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. High pressure will build in over the western Atlantic by Wed and Thu, allowing fresh to strong winds to persist off Colombia, with increasing winds and building seas over the northwest Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras from mid to late week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1015 mb low pressure is centered just off of Daytona Beach Florida. An occluded front extends from the low to 31N79W to another 1015 mb low near 31N77W. A cold front extends from the low near 31N77W to Eleuthera Island Bahamas to central Cuba near 22N78.5W. A dissipating stationary front is analyzed from 30N75W to 28N70W. Scattered areas of tstms are noted N of 25N between 63W-76W. Isolated tstorms are north of the low off northern Florida. As discussed in the Special Features section above, the strong to gale force winds are all north of 30.5N. Some fresh winds prevail east of the cold front N of the Bahamas, but mainly moderate wind speeds cover the western and central Atlantic Ocean from 16N-30N. The same can be said about the eastern Atlantic, with no strong winds or major precipitation areas noted. Seas average 5-6 ft to the east of 45W, while seas of 6-8 ft prevail over the western Atlantic. For the forecast, the cold front over the western Atlantic will move a little farther east early this morning as the low pressure east of northern Florida lifts north. Then, the front will dissipate by this afternoon. A ridge will build westward into the region along roughly 27N through mid week, then lift north of the area Thu and Fri. Farther east, low pressure may form near the Canary Islands late in the week, increasing winds in the region to strong to near gale force. $$ Hagen