000 AXNT20 KNHC 220005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Mar 22 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean gale warning...The pressure gradient between high pressure across the NE United States and low pressure centered north of the Bahamas is supporting strong to near gale winds off the east coast of Florida, north of 30N through tonight. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center, at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 10N14W to 01N23W. The ITCZ continues from 01N23W to 02S40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is N of 05S between 1W to 17W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from northern Cuba near 23N81W NW to 25N86W to Louisiana offshore waters near 27N89W. Layered microwave and water vapor imagery continue to show very dry air across most of the basin, which is supporting the lack of deep convection in the vicinity of the front. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are to the N of this front E of 87W and over the north-central offshore waters with seas to 4 ft. Light and gentle winds are elsewhere. The cold front will dissipate as it moves southward through tonight. High pressure building behind the front over the northeast Gulf will support increased E to SE winds and building seas over the western Gulf Mon, then over the central Gulf Tue and Wed as a cold front moves through Texas. The front will move into the northwest Gulf Thu and stall from the north central Gulf coast to the southwest Gulf Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Low-level layered precipitable water imagery show several patches of shallow moisture across the basin, which are supporting scattered showers and isolated tstms across the Mona passage, portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba and the Gulf of Honduras. Very dry air is noted elsewhere in the low and middle level water vapor imagery as well as low-level microwave imagery. With high pressure prevailing N of the region, moderate to locally fresh winds also prevail across the eastern half of the basin and portions of the SW Caribbean with seas to 6 ft. Locally strong winds are along the coast of Colombia with seas to 8 ft extending offshore. High pressure will build over the western Atlantic through mid week, allowing fresh to strong winds to persist off Colombia, and increasing winds and building seas over northwest Caribbean from mid to late week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the special features section for details regarding the gale warning off the coast of NE Florida. A complex surface pattern is over the SW North Atlantic waters. A 1016 mb low is near 30N80W from which a cold front extends across the northern Bahamas, SW to northern Cuba and then NW into the Gulf of Mexico. To the SE of this low, a second 1013 mb low is located near 29N77W just at the tail of a dissipating stationary front that extends NE to 30N63W. Aside from the wind threat discussed in the special features, scattered areas of deep convection with tstms are noted N of 25N between 65W and 79W. The cold front will move a little farther east overnight as the low lifts north, then dissipate Mon. A ridge will build westward into the region along roughly 27N through mid week, then will lift north of the area Thu and Fri. $$ Ramos