000 AXNT20 KNHC 210516 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Mar 21 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0450 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WINDS... Broad low pressure and two frontal boundaries are in the Atlantic Ocean, within 630 nm to the east of Florida. High pressure has settled into the NE United States of America. Strong to near gale-force winds have developed in the Atlantic Ocean, off the coast of NE Florida, from 28N northward between 79W and 81W. Expect frequent gusts to gale-force, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 13 feet, for the next 24 hours or so. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center, at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W, to 04N19W, and to 02N23W. The ITCZ continues from 02N23W, crossing the Equator along 40W/41W, to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 06N southward from 18W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 09N southward between 23W and 48W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front cuts across south Florida, along 26N, from the Atlantic Ocean to the SW coast of Florida, and it continues northwestward, to 29N89W, off the coast of SE Louisiana. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 150 nm on either side of the cold front. A surface trough is along 88W/89W from 22N to 27N. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 180 nm to the east of the trough, and from 23N between 90w and 95W. A surface ridge extends from SW Louisiana, to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. The current east central Gulf of Mexico cold front will weaken, as it moves across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday. High pressure will build in the NE Gulf of Mexico, behind the front, through early next week. Expect increased E to SE winds and building seas in the western Gulf of Mexico. A weak cold front will stall along the Texas coast by mid-week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front passes through 29N70W in the Atlantic Ocean, to a 1016 mb low pressure center that is near 26N79W. The stationary front continues from 26N79W, to NW Cuba near 23N81W, to the coastal waters of Belize near 17N88W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is to the north of the line that runs from the coast of Honduras near 16N84W to Jamaica. Broad low level-to-700 mb cyclonic wind flow covers the area of the SW Caribbean Sea, northwestward, into Central America. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainfall covers the area from Panama to Honduras, including in the coastal waters of Central America. Please refer to the forecasts and the weather bulletins from your local meteorological offices for more details. A surface trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, through and beyond the Colombia/Panama border, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 330 nm to the south of the surface trough, in Colombia and its coastal waters. Please refer to the forecasts and the weather bulletins from your local meteorological offices for more details. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow. The current far NW Caribbean Sea stationary front will dissipate overnight. Large northerly swell to the east of the Leeward Islands will subside through tonight. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the south central Caribbean Sea into early next week. Looking ahead: high pressure building in the western Atlantic Ocean will support fresh to strong SE winds in the northwestern Caribbean Sea by mid week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... One stationary front passes through 32N75W, to a 1016 mb low pressure center that is near 29N79W. A cold front extends southward from the 1016 mb low pressure center, to the eastern coast of Florida near 26N80W. The front cuts across south Florida, to 26N on the SW coast of Florida, and it continues northwestward, to 29N89W, off the coast of SE Louisiana. A second stationary front passes through Bermuda, to 29N70W, to a second 1016 mb low pressure center that is near 26N79W. The stationary front continues from 26N79W, to NW Cuba near 23N81W, to the coastal waters of Belize near 17N88W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to the north of the line that passes through 32N60W 28N70W 24N80W. A third stationary front, in the eastern part of the Atlantic Ocean, curves through 32N34W 30N36W, to 29N43W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 60 nm on either side of the stationary front. One surface trough is along 33W/34W from 18N to 28N. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 20W and 50W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 300 nm to the east of the surface trough from 22N northward. A second surface trough is along 45W/47W from 20N to 28N. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 240 nm to 300 nm on either side of the trough. A stationary front extends from 31N68W to central Cuba. A cold front, moving through the waters off northeastern Florida, will move into the Straits of Florida by early Sunday, as the first front dissipates. The second front will move more to the east, and dissipate through Monday, as low pressure developing along the front moves to the north of the area through Tuesday. A ridge will build westward into the region along roughly 27N, through mid week. $$ mt