000 AXNT20 KNHC 200002 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Mar 20 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W and continues to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 01N36W. No significant convection is occurring at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging is across the Gulf waters in the wake of a cold front that extends across the western tip of Cuba and the Yucatan channel. Moderate northerly winds cover the basin with locally fresh winds noted off the western Yucatan Peninsula. An earlier altimeter pass shows seas in the 3 to 6 ft range. Both layered precipitable water and water vapor imagery show very dry conditions across the region, which is supporting fair weather. A new cold front will move into the northeast Gulf early Sat, and will weaken as it moves across the eastern and central Gulf through through late Sun. High pressure will building over the northeast Gulf early next week, supporting increased E to SE winds and building seas over the western Gulf. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may enter the far northwest Gulf late Tue or Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and tstms are along the Yucatan Channel associated with the tail of a cold front. Similar shower activity is within 90 nm of the coast of Costa Rica and northern Panama due to a surface trough that extends from Costa Rica to the tropical Pacific waters. Water vapor imagery at the lower and middle levels show very dry conditions elsewhere across the region, which is supporting fair weather. Otherwise, surface ridging extending from the central Atlantic into the area is supporting moderate to fresh trades over the central and portions of the SW Caribbean with locally strong winds happening along the coast of Colombia. Winds across these regions of the basin will start to diminish Tue. The cold front currently moving across the western tip of Cuba and the Yucatan Channel will stall and dissipate over the far northwest Caribbean through late Sat. Large northerly swell east of the Leeward Islands will subside through Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough over the W Atlantic continue to support a cold front that extends from 31N71W to the northern Bahamas to the western tip of Cuba. Diffluent flow aloft support scattered showers and tstms within 90 nm ahead of the front. Fresh to strong SW winds are ahead of the front N of 28N to 65W with seas to 9 ft ahead and behind the front. In the central Atlantic, another trough aloft supports a stationary front from 31N33W to 20N48W. Scattered showers and tstms are N of 22N between 35W and 43W associated with this second front. Recent scatterometer data show moderate to fresh NE winds behind this front to 46W and N of 26N. The cold front is forecast to stall from Bermuda to central Cuba by early Sat. A second front will move into the waters off northeast Florida early Sat, and move into the Straits of Florida by early Sun as the first front dissipates. The second front will move farther east and dissipate through Mon as low pressure developing along the front lifts north of the area. $$ Ramos