000 AXNT20 KNHC 191000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Mar 19 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 01N31W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02S to 03N between 31W and 38W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 00N to 03N between 45W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from near Port Charlotte, Florida to the Yucatan peninsula. Fresh to strong winds are noted over the NE Gulf as well as west of the Yucatan peninsula and the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere west of the front. Gentle to moderate winds are found east of the front. Seas are in the 7-8 ft range over the NE and SW Gulf, and 6-7 ft elsewhere west of the front. East of the front, seas are in the 2-4 ft range. The cold front will move SE of the Gulf basin by this evening. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas are expected in the NE Gulf Sat night through Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from eastern Honduras SE across the southwestern Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean, reaching near gale force off the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh winds are over the north central Caribbean as well as the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range over the south central Caribbean, 6-7 ft over the north central and eastern Caribbean, and 3-5 ft over the western Caribbean. Large northerly swell will subside across Tropical N Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages today. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the south central Caribbean. A cold front over the Gulf of Mexico will reach the Yucatan Channel this afternoon. The front will extend from western Cuba to Belize Sat, then meander across the NW Caribbean through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front has moved off the coast of NE Florida overnight, currently extending from near 32N78W to central Florida. Fresh to strong winds are noted within 120 nm east of the front, with strong to near gale force winds west of the front. Seas over this are are in the 8-11 ft range. Elsewhere west of 65W, gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 4-6 ft range prevail. For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front over the NW waters will extend from near 31N70W to the Straits of Florida this evening, then become stationary on Sat. An area of low pressure forming along the stationary front will increase northerly winds east of northern Florida Sat through Mon. Farther east, a stationary front extends from 32N34W to 15.5N61W. Moderate to fresh winds are within 120 nm west of the front, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere west of the front to 65W. east of the front, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range in decaying northerly swell over much of the waters east of 65W. $$ AL