000 AXNT20 KNHC 190543 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Mar 19 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 06N16W, and to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W, to 01N32W. A second ITCZ is along 03S22W 04S28W 02W35W 01S38W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 02.5N southward between 45W and 49W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 07N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through north central Florida along 83W, to 28N85W, to the central Gulf of Mexico near 24N90W, and curving southwestward to the northern parts of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong are to the northwest and north of the line that passes through: 32N70W, to the NW Bahamas, to 24N88W in the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is along 23N87W, to 20N90W in the Yucatan Peninsula, into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 120 nm on either side of the surface trough. A surface ridge passes through the Deep South of Texas, to the coast of Mexico near 20N97W. The current cold front, from north Florida to the Bay of Campeche, will continue moving SE, and reach from southern Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday morning, then move SE of the basin by Friday evening. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas are expected in the NE Gulf of Mexico, from Saturday night through Sunday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from 15N85W in eastern sections of Honduras, across NE Nicaragua, to the coast of Panama near 09N81W. The GFS model for 250 mb and for 500 mb shows anticyclonic wind flow on top of this area. The GFS model for 700 mb shows an inverted trough, from Panama to Costa Rica, through Nicaragua, to Honduras. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from Panama to 17N between 80W and 90W, including in inland areas of Central America. Please refer to the forecasts and the weather bulletins from your local meteorological offices for more details. A stationary front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, near 20N50W to 16N60W, and across the northern coastal areas of Dominica, to 15N65W in the eastern Caribbean Sea. The GFS model for 250 mb shows a trough from 20N63W to 12N69W. The GFS model for 500 mb shows a trough along 16N between 60W and 66W. Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers are from 70W eastward. A surface trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, through and beyond the Colombia/Panama border, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated-to-widely scattered strong is within 180 nm to the south of the surface trough, in Colombia. Please refer to the forecasts and the weather bulletins from your local meteorological offices for more details. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow. The current stationary front across the NE Caribbean Sea along 15N, will weaken through tonight. Large northerly swell will subside across the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea Passages, through Friday. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the central Caribbean Sea through Friday morning, with near gale-force winds expected near the coast of Colombia tonight. A cold front that is in the Gulf of Mexico will reach the Yucatan Channel on Friday afternoon, from western Cuba to Belize on Saturday, then meander across the NW Caribbean Sea through Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is along 32N34W 27N40W 20N50W 16N60W, across the northern coastal areas of Dominica, to 15N65W in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers are within 150 nm on either side of the stationary front. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the north and northwest of the cold front. A surface ridge is along 30N55W 26N67W, across the Bahamas and Cuba, to 21N83W in the NW Caribbean Sea. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is to the east of the stationary front, from 16N northward. A frontal boundary is to the north of the area, from 32N northward between 58W and 70W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from 27N northward between 55W and 70W. Large northerly swell will subside across the waters E of 72W through Friday. A cold front will move off the coast of northern Florida tonight. The front will extend from near 31N70W to the Straits of Florida on Friday evening, then become stationary on Saturday. An area of low pressure forming along the stationary front will increase northerly winds, to the east of northern Florida, from Saturday through Monday. $$ mt