000 AXNT20 KNHC 180530 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Mar 18 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WINDS... The 15-hour forecast consists of a cold front that passes through 30N86W to 18N95W. Expect NW gale-force winds, and sea heights at 8 feet, from 21N southward from the cold front westward. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, from the National Hurricane Center, at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W, to 04N20W, and to 03N23W. The ITCZ continues from 03N23W, to 02N33W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 05N southward between 01W and 07W. Scattered moderate to strong is from 05N southward between 13W and 19W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 90 nm to the north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 21W and 29W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 08N southward. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through SW Louisiana, into the west central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 23N98W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 28N to 32N between 87W and 91W, mostly inland, from SE Louisiana, to southern Mississippi, to SW Alabama. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds are elsewhere to the north and northwest of the line that passes through 29N83W 25N90W 19N95W. Fresh southerly winds will prevail tonight, in advance of a cold front moving across the NW Gulf of Mexico. The front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to the central Bay of Campeche on Thursday, and from southern Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. Brief gale-force NW winds are expected near the Veracruz coast of Mexico on Thursday. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas are expected in the NE Gulf of Mexico from Saturday night through Sunday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Earlier scatterometer data were indicating a surface trough in the southwestern corner of the Caribbean Sea. The trough extends from the southeastern coast of Nicaragua to the northern coast of Panama. This surface trough, and a middle level trough that is in the southern sections of Central America, have been enhancing rainshowers and thunderstorms during the last 24 hours. Isolated moderate precipitation, now, is from 17N southward, from 77W westward, including in inland areas of Central America. It is possible that heavy rain may impact the southeastern coast of Nicaragua, from tonight into Thursday. A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, through 20N50W, across the island of Guadeloupe, to 18N69W, just to the south of the SE part of the Dominican Republic. Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers are from 14N northward from 70W eastward. A surface trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, through and beyond the Colombia/Panama border, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated strong is from 06N to 10N between 74W and 80W, in parts of Colombia and Panama, and in the nearby coastal waters. Please refer to the forecasts and the weather bulletins from your local meteorological offices for more details. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow. The current cold front, that is across the NE Caribbean Sea, will drift southward, and weaken, through Thursday. Large northerly swell will affect the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean, and the Caribbean Sea Passages, through Thursday. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the central Caribbean Sea through Friday morning. Near gale-force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia each night. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Windward Passage tonight. SE winds will increase across the NW Caribbean Sea tonight, in advance of a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico. The front will reach the Yucatan Channel on Friday night, then meander across the NW Caribbean Sea through Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N34W to 26N40W, and 20N50W, across the island of Guadeloupe, to 18N69W. Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers are within 150 nm to the northwest and north of the cold front, and within 120 nm to the southeast and south of the front. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the north and northwest of the cold front. A surface ridge extends from 26N62W through 32N60W, to a 1026 mb high pressure center that is near 40N60W. A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 34N70W. A cold front trails from the low pressure center, to 32N74W, and then beyond the SE coast of Georgia, inland. Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds are to the north of the line that passes through 30N79W 25N60W 29N40W, beyond 32N36W. Rainshowers are possible from 28N northward between 38W and 62W. The current cold front, from 20N50W to the NE Caribbean Sea, will drift SE and weaken through Thursday. Large northerly swell will affect the waters E of 72W through Thursday. A cold front will move to the east of northern Florida on Thursday night. The front will extend from near 31N71W to the Straits of Florida on Friday evening, then become stationary on Saturday. An area of low pressure forming along the stationary front will intensify northerly winds that are to the east of northern Florida on Sunday and Sunday night, with gale conditions possible. $$ mt/DM