000 AXNT20 KNHC 161803 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Mar 16 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning...A large extratropical cyclone will continue moving eastward in the central N Atlantic today. Scatterometer passes within the last couple hours indicated peak winds of 35-40 kt between 45W and 60W. Additionally, altimeter passes measured seas up to 27 ft near 32N50W at 1330 UTC. Gale- force winds are expected to diminish this afternoon. Seas will continue peaking between 20-25 ft in mixed NE swell and W wind waves from now through Tue night. A very large area of 12 ft or greater seas will continue through Thu morning. Caribbean Gale Warning...The pressure gradient from high pressure north of the area combined with the low over Colombia will give way to gale-force winds 90 nm north of Colombia beginning this evening and through tonight. Seas are expected to build 8 to 12 ft. Expect fresh to near gale NE to E winds to prevail for the S central Caribbean Wed night through Sat night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details on these warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from 03N24W to 01N37W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-07N between 17W-26W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is also noted south of Liberia to the equator and east of 12W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging prevails across the Gulf of Mexico. Scatterometer data depicts moderate S winds in the northern Gulf, with SE moderate to fresh return flow elsewhere. Seas are 3-5 ft across the basin. No significant precipitation is occurring at this time. Fresh to locally strong southerly flow will develop over the western and central Gulf by tonight into Wed. A cold front is forecast to push off the Texas coast on Wed and move across the Gulf waters through Thu. Strong winds could occur off the Veracruz coast behind the front. The cold front will exit the southeast Gulf by Fri. Later in the weekend, fresh to strong winds and building seas could occur in the NE Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section above for more information on the Gale Warning over the south-central Caribbean. The pressure gradient from high pressure north of the area combined with the low over Colombia and local effects are producing fresh to strong E winds in the central Caribbean and fresh to strong NE winds in the Windward Passage. Scatterometer data from this morning noted NE near-gale force winds within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere, trade winds are moderate to fresh. Scattered showers are occurring in the eastern Caribbean Sea near the Leeward Antilles. Gale-force winds will occur within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia tonight. From Wed night through Sat night, expect nightly pulses of fresh to strong winds in this region. Expect pulses of fresh to strong winds in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola tonight. Fresh to strong trades will dominate most of the waters S of 18N between 64W and 80W today and will persist through Fri. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras tonight through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning along our High Seas northern border east of 65W. A cold front enters the discussion area in the central Atlantic, extending from 32N45W to 26N75W, near the eastern Bahamas, where the boundary lifts northward as a warm front. N-NW winds behind the front reach up to a strong breeze, becoming moderate return flow west of 65W from higher pressure building in behind the front. No significant showers or thunderstorms are associated with the frontal boundary. Farther east a surface trough extends from 32N41W to 18N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm east of the trough, N of 26N Strong southerly winds are ahead of the trough. Seas in the western Atlantic range from 8-16ft, with values above 20 ft east of 60W associated with the front. Ridging from high pressure north of the area dominates the eastern Atlantic with seas 4-7 ft. Winds will diminish across the NE portion of the forecast waters through early morning. The cold front front will reach the Atlantic waters of Puerto Rico tonight into Wed. The next cold front is expected to push off the Florida coast on Thu night. Fresh to strong southerly flow is expected ahead of this front through Fri. By the weekend, strong winds and building seas are expected to impact the Florida coast. Northerly swell is will approach the Atlantic Passages E of the Mona Passage through the Leeward Islands tonight and continue through Thu. $$ Mora