000 AXNT20 KNHC 160511 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Mar 16 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning...A large extratropical cyclone centered near 39N52W is moving eastward in the central N Atlantic today. Gale-force W winds in the S semicircle are spreading south of 31N border to 29N between 48W and 62W through later this morning to the west of an associated cold front. Scatterometer passes within the last couple hours indicated peak winds of 35-40 kt between 52W and 62W. Additionally, altimeter passes measured peak seas of 20 ft near 30N62W at 2220 UTC. By late today, as the system turns toward the northeast, the W winds will diminish to a moderate breeze. Seas will continue peaking between 20-25 ft in mixed NE swell and W wind waves from now through Tue night. A very large area of 12 ft or greater seas will continue through Thu morning. Caribbean Gale Warning...Pressure gradient from high pressure north of the area combined with the low over Colombia will give way to gale-force winds north of Colombia shortly and persisting through tonight. Seas are expected to build 8 to 12 ft. Expect fresh to near gale NE to E winds to prevail for the S central Caribbean Wed night through Sat night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details on these warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N16W to 04N28W. The ITCZ continues from 04N28W to 01N39W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring south of 05N and east of 20W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 05N between 20W and 32W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging prevails across the Gulf of Mexico this evening. E to S winds of only gentle to moderate conditions dominate the Gulf, except for some fresh E winds just north of the Yucatan. Seas are 5 ft or less across the entire Gulf. No significant showers or thunderstorms are occurring over the Gulf this evening. Fresh to locally strong S flow will develop over W and central Gulf by Tue night into Wed. A cold front is forecast to push off the Texas coast on Wed and move across the Gulf waters through Thu. The front will exit the SE Gulf by Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section above for more information on the Gale Warning over the south-central Caribbean. Pressure gradient from high pressure north of the area combined with the low over Colombia and local effects are producing three areas of enhanced winds. Scatterometer observations in the last couple hours shows near gale easterlies just north of Colombia, strong E winds in the Gulf of Honduras, and strong NE winds in the Windward Passage. Peak seas are likely near 8 ft just north of Colombia. Scattered showers are occurring in the vicinity of a surface trough that extends from the Atlantic over the Leeward Islands. Pulses of gale-force winds will occur within about 90 nmi of the coast of Colombia tonight and Tue night. From Wed night through Sat night, expect nightly pulses of fresh to strong winds in this region. Meanwhile, pulses of fresh to strong winds will persist in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through Tue night. By Tue, fresh to strong trades will dominate most of the waters S of 18N between 64W and 80W and will continue through Fri. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning along our High Seas northern border east of 65W. A cold front enters the discussion area in the central Atlantic, extending from 32N54W to 26N72W, where it transitions to a stationary front extending to the Georgia border near 31N81W. N winds behind the cold front reach up to a strong breeze, while E winds behind the stationary front a fresh breeze. No significant showers or thunderstorms are associated with the frontal boundary. Farther east a surface trough extends from 32N43W to 20N55W to the Leeward Islands. Southerly winds ahead of the trough reach up near gale conditions and with scattered moderate and isolated strong convection occurring north of 26N between 40W and 45W. Fresh to strong N winds and building seas in NW swell will follow the cold front, affecting mainly the NE portion of the forecast waters through tonight. The cold front front will reach the Atlantic waters of Puerto Rico Tue night into Wed. The next cold front is expected to push off the Florida coast on Thu night. Fresh to strong S flow is expected ahead of this front through Fri. Northerly swell is expected to impact the Atlantic Passages E of the Mona Passage through the Leeward Islands Tue night into Wed. $$ Landsea