380 AXNT20 KNHC 151753 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Mar 15 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning...A large extratropical cyclone will move eastward in the central N Atlantic Mon and Tue. Gale-force W winds in the S semicircle are anticipated to spread south of 31N border to 29N between 48W and 60W Mon afternoon through Tue morning to the west of an associated cold front. By late Tue, as the system turns toward the northeast, the W winds will diminish to a moderate breeze. Seas are anticipated to peak between 20-25 ft in mixed NE swell and W wind waves from Mon night through Tue night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Caribbean Gale Warning...Pressure gradient from high pressure north of the area combined with the low over Colombia will give way to gale-force winds north of Colombia tonight and Tues night. Seas are expected to build 8 to 12 ft. Expect fresh to strong NE to E winds Wed night through Fri night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N16W to 04N25W to 02N33W. The ITCZ continues from 02N33W to 00N40W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring south of 07N, east of 20W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 04N between 20W and 28W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak stationary front continues to linger off the Texas and Mexico coast from 30N94W to 21N97W. Some showers may be present due to shallow moisture along the front. Weak ridging prevails across the N Gulf. Fresh to strong E winds are north of the Yucatan Peninsula and fresh SE winds are west of the Peninsula. The remainder of the Gulf has gentle to moderate E to SE winds. Seas range 3-5 ft across the Gulf with calm seas in the NE Gulf. The frontal boundary is expected to linger along the Texas coast today before weakening as it lifts farther inland by this evening. Fresh to locally strong southerly flow will develop over the western and central Gulf by Tue night into Wed. A cold front is forecast to push off the Texas coast on Wed and move across the Gulf waters through Thu. The front will exit the southeast Gulf by Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section for more information on the gale warning of Colombia. Fresh to strong NE trades north of Colombia and in the central Caribbean, as well as fresh to strong NE winds in the Windward Passage remain due to the pressure gradient between higher pressure north of the area and lower pressure over Colombia. Continuous ridging is allowing for fair weather conditions over the basin. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE to E trades prevail. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range over the entire basin, with the highest seas in the south-central Caribbean. Pulses of gale-force winds will occur north of Colombia tonight and Tue night. From Wed night until the end of the week, expect fresh to strong winds in this region. Meanwhile, pulses of fresh to strong winds will persist in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through Tue night. By Tue, fresh to strong trades will dominate most of the waters S of 18N between 64W and 80W and will continue through Fri. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features above for a Gale event along our High Seas northern border. A cold front entered the discussion area in the western Atlantic at 1500 UTC, extending from 32N60W westward to the SE U.S. coast. Fresh to strong winds associated with this front are north of 29N and west of 50W. A surface trough extends from 30N47W to 21N56W. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of the trough north of 25N and west of 43W. Ridging dominates the eastern Atlantic supporting gentle to moderate trades with seas around 5 ft. Seas west of 40W and north of 27N range from 6-9 ft ahead of an incoming front. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas in NW swell will follow the cold front just entering the discussion area, affecting mainly the NE part through tonight. The next cold front is expected to push off the Florida coast on Thu night. Fresh to strong southerly flow is expected ahead of this front through Fri. Farther south, swell is expected to impact the Atlantic Passages E of the Mona Passage through the Leeward Islands Tue night into Wed. $$ Mora