000 AXNT20 KNHC 141024 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Mar 14 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning...A large extratropical cyclone will move eastward in the central N Atlantic Mon and Tue. Gale- force W winds in the S semicircle are anticipated to reach south of 31N border between 48W and 60W Mon afternoon through Tue morning. By late Tue, as the system turns toward the northeast, the W winds will diminish to a moderate breeze. Seas are anticipated to peak between 20-25 ft in mixed NE swell and W wind waves from Mon night through Tue night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 03N21W to 02N30W. The ITCZ continues from 03N30W to 00N38W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from 01S-07N and east of 27W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1023 mb high is centered in the NE Gulf near 29N84W. As seen in buoy and scatterometer data, there are E trades in the Florida Straits and moderate to fresh SE winds in the W Gulf. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker. Seas range 3 to 5 ft with 6 ft seas in the NW Gulf. No significant shower activity is present as subsident upper- level anticyclonic flow prevails over the Gulf. A ridge dominates the Gulf waters with southerly return flow across the basin. The western Gulf can expect fresh to locally strong winds through this morning. A frontal boundary is expected to linger along the Texas coast through Mon before lifting farther inland by Mon evening. Fresh southerly flow will develop over the western and central Gulf by Tue night into Wed. By Wed night, a cold front will push off the Texas coast and move across the basin on Thu. The front will exit the southeast Gulf by Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak ridge of high pressure is centered north of the Caribbean along 29N. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over Colombia and Venezuela is helping to promote fresh to strong NE winds just north of Colombia and fresh NE winds in the Windward Passage. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker. Peak seas are only 5-6 ft in the W Caribbean. Scattered showers are occurring in the southern Windward Islands with no significant convection elsewhere. Pulses of fresh to strong winds will persist in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola into early next week. Fresh to strong NE winds are also expected to pulse near the coast of Colombia at night through Thu night. By Tue, fresh to strong winds will build across the central Caribbean through Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features above for a Gale event along our High Seas northern border. A cold front is beginning to sink southward across the western Atlantic, stretching from 31N65W to 31N77W. Showers are noted along the front with light to moderate winds behind it. A trough is north fo Puerto Rico from 23N57W to 19N65W with isolated showers associated with it. In the eastern Atlantic, ridging from high pressure extends across the region. A 1019 mb high pressure is centered near 28N47W. A second trough is located from 31N31W to 24N41W. Moderate winds are noted north of Hispaniola, otherwise light to gentle winds prevail across the Atlantic. Seas range 4-6 ft. A surface trough located north of Puerto Rico will drift eastward through Mon. A cold front will push southward between Bermuda and northern Florida today. A stronger reinforcing cold front will move south of 30N on Mon. Fresh NE winds can be expected across the region. Another cold front is expected to push off the Florida coast on Thu night. $$ AReinhart