000 AXNT20 KNHC 140529 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Mar 14 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic gale warning...A large extratropical cyclone will move eastward in the central N Atlantic Mon and Tue. Gale-force W winds in the S semicircle are anticipated to reach south of our 31N border between 50W and 60W Mon afternoon through Tue morning. By late Tue, as the system turns toward the northeast, the W winds will have diminished to a moderate breeze. Seas are anticipated to peak between 20-25 ft in mixed NE swell and W wind waves from Mon night through Tue night. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W to 03N25W. The ITCZ continues from 03N25W to 01N48W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring between 00N and 05N east of 25W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1024 mb high is centered in the NE Gulf, near 29N95W. As seen in buoy and scatterometer data, there are E trades in the Florida Straits and SE winds in the W Gulf that are a fresh breeze. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker. Seas peak near 5 ft in the W Gulf. No significant shower activity is present as subsident, upper-level anticyclonic flow prevails over the Gulf. Southeast return flow over the western Gulf will expand across the rest of the basin on Sun, becoming fresh to locally strong in the western Gulf. A cold front will stall near the coast of Texas on Sun and move back inland by Sun night. Southerly return flow will increase again across the Gulf region Tue night and Wed ahead of the next cold front pushing off the Texas coast by Wed. The front is expected to move across the Gulf on Thu and exit Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak ridge of high pressure is centered north of the Caribbean along 29N. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over Colombia and Venezuela is helping to promote fresh to strong NE winds just north of Colombia and fresh NE winds in the Windward Passage. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker. Peak seas are only 5-6 ft in the W Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the SE Caribbean this evening, with no significant convection elsewhere. Winds and seas will continue to diminish across the region through Sun as a high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea weakens. Pulses of fresh to strong winds will persist in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola into early next week. By Tue, fresh to strong winds will build across the central Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected near the coast of Colombia at night through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features above for a Gale event along our High Seas northern border. A weak ridge of high pressure extends from a 1024 mb high centered offshore of NE Florida to a 1020 mb high near 28N50W. The resulting NE to E trades south of the ridge are moderate across the basin. A surface trough just north of Puerto Rico is analyzed from 20N66W to 24N60W. Winds just north of the trough are NE up to a fresh breeze. Farther northeast, another surface trough extends from 32N32W to 24N40W. A cold front is drapped along our N border from 32N65W to 32N80W, though peak winds in our AOR are weaker than a fresh breeze. Peak seas are 4-6 ft in association with the trough north of Puerto Rico and with the trough near 35W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection south of 12N west of 50W. Scattered showers are also present from 23N-27N between 55-60W in association with the surface trough. No other significant convection is occurring elewhere. Winds and seas will continue to diminish across the SW N Atlantic through Sun as a high pressure in the west-central Atlantic weakens. A surface trough located north of Puerto Rico will drift eastward during the next couple days. A cold front will move southward between Bermuda and northern Florida tonight and Sun. A stronger, reinforcing cold front will move south of 30N on Mon. Another cold front is expected to push off the Florida coast on Thu night. $$ Landsea