000 AXNT20 KNHC 121748 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Mar 12 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 10N14W to 02N27W. The ITCZ continues from 02N27W to 02N47W. Scattered Moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N-08N between 08W-25W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extending across the northern Gulf of Mexico is allowing for mainly moderate to fresh E-SE winds to prevail. Scatterometer data front this morning noted fresh to strong E winds across the Florida Straits and Yucatan Channel. Scattered clouds are noted along the coast of eastern Mexico, west of weak surface trough extending from the Bay of Campeche to the SW Gulf. Seas are 4-7 ft in this region, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. High pressure over the western Atlantic will shift eastward and weaken through Sat. Southeast return flow across the western Gulf will gradually expand across the entire Gulf through the weekend, becoming fresh to strong in the northwest Gulf Sat night. These winds diminish into early next week, as a cold front stalls near the Texas coast Sun through Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA High pressure centered over the western Atlantic is supporting fresh to strong winds in the Windward passage as well as the northern Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are also noted off the coast of Colombia, with seas reaching 8 ft. Moderate to fresh trade winds are over the remainder of the Caribbean waters. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the western half of the Caribbean and 5-6 ft over the eastern half. Winds and seas will diminish across the region through Sun as the high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea weakens. Pulses of fresh to strong winds will persist through the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola into early next week. Fresh to strong winds are expected near the coast of Colombia during the overnight and early morning hours through Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure is centered in the western Atlantic. A cold front extends from 32N42W to 27N48W, then stationary to 20N65W. ASCAT data from 1200 UTC reveals fresh to strong easterly winds prevailing west of the front to the Bahamas south of 30N. Seas in the area of strongest winds are 10-12 ft. Moderate to fresh winds and seas in the 7-9 ft range are north of 27N, west of the front. Moderate easterly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are elsewhere across the discussion waters except for waters surrounding the Canary Islands where winds become fresh to strong. The stationary front south of 21N will dissipate later today. Winds and seas will diminish across the region through Sun as high pressure in the central Atlantic weakens. A cold front will move southward into the waters between Bermuda to northern Florida Sat night and Sun. A reinforcing cold front will move south of 30N on Mon. $$ Mora