000 AXNT20 KNHC 112129 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Mar 12 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Locally heavy Rainfall over Hispaniola: A stationary front extends to the northern portions of Hispaniola. There are currently some showers noted over NW Hispaniola near the tail-end of the front with most convective activity north of the island. Abundant low level moisture associated with the front will continue to be transported across much of northern and interior portions of Hispaniola before the front begins to drift N tonight through Fri. Scattered to numerous showers embedded in the strong NE winds associated with the front could impact these areas this evening. Locally heavy rain and strong gusty winds are expected with some of these showers and will maintain the potential for flash flooding and river flooding, as well as landslides across higher elevations. Flood warnings and watches have been announced for several provinces, by the Weather Bureau of the Dominican Republic. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 08N13W to 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 300 nm N and 90 nm S of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh east-southeasterly winds prevail across the Gulf of Mexico. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range over the NE Gulf, and 5-8 ft over the remainder of the Gulf waters. Strong high pressure over the western Atlantic will shift slowly eastward and support fresh to strong E winds over the southeast Gulf and the Florida Straits into Fri. Southeast return flow across the western Gulf will gradually expand across the entire Gulf through the weekend, becoming strong over the northwest Gulf Sat night. These winds diminish into early next week, as the next cold front stalls near the Texas coast Sun into Mon, before lifting north Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA See the Special Features section for more information concerning the heavy rainfall over Hispaniola. High pressure is centered near 33N72W. This area of high pressure is supporting fresh to strong winds across the Windward passage as well as the NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are also noted off the coast of Colombia, with moderate to fresh winds over the remainder of the Caribbean waters. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range over the western half of the Caribbean and 4-6 ft over the eastern half. Strong high pressure over the western Atlantic continues to support fresh to strong winds across the northwest and south- central Caribbean. This will diminish slightly by Sat, but pulses of fresh to strong winds will persist through the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and off Colombia into early next week. Seas over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Leeward and Windward Islands will remain 8 ft or greater through Fri night in mixed NW swell and E wind waves. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from low pres near 34N44W to 23N61W, then stationary to just north of Hispaniola. High pressure is centered north of the area near 33N72W. Fresh to strong winds prevail within 300 nm N of the front, where seas are in the 8-12 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the front, with seas of 5-8 ft over the open waters. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, are elsewhere across the discussion waters. For the forecast west of 65W, The stationary front is expected to drift northward and meander through tonight before dissipating early Fri. Strong high pressure north of the front will support fresh to strong NE winds with large seas in mixed NW and NE swell south of 28N through Fri evening. Another cold front will move southward into the waters between Bermuda to northeast Florida Sat night through Sun, sinking southward to along roughly 25N Mon night and Tue. $$ AL