000 AXNT20 KNHC 111047 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Mar 11 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING: Strong high pressure centered over the western Atlantic continues to induce strong tradewinds across the south central Caribbean tonight. NE gale-force winds are occurring across a small area within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia between 74.5W and 75W, where seas are estimated to be to around 9 feet. These gale-force wind conditions are expected to diminish to around 30 kt shortly after sunrise. Strong tradewinds will continue across the waters offshore of Colombia today. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, from the National Hurricane Center, at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. Locally heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola: A stationary front passes through 21.5N65W in the Atlantic Ocean, to NW coastal sections of Hispaniola. Abundant low level moisture associated with the front will continue to be transported across much of northern and interior portions of Hispaniola this morning before the front begins to drift NW later today through Fri. Scattered to numerous showers embedded in the strong NE winds associate with the front will affect these area through today. showers across Hispaniola. Locally heavy rain and strong gusty winds are expected with some of these showers, and will maintain the potential for flash flooding and river flooding, as well as landslides across higher elevations. Flood warnings and watches have been announced for several provinces, by the Weather Bureau of the Dominican Republic. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of Sierra Leone and Liberia, to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from 05N14W to the Equator along 37W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted along and within 180 nm S of the trough and from 01S to 05N between 37W and 51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic SW across the Florida Panhandle to NE Mexico near 23N97W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. Low clouds and fog prevail across the nearshore waters of NE Mexico and Texas. Strong easterly winds prevail across the Straits of Florida and portions of the SE Gulf east of 90W where seas are 6-9 ft. Strong high pressure over the W Atlantic will continue to shift slowly eastward and support fresh to strong E winds over the southeast Gulf and the Florida Straits through Fri night. Southeast return flow across the western Gulf will gradually expand across the entire Gulf through the weekend. The next cold front is expected to enter the northwest Gulf Sun and stall there through Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front passes through 22N65W in the Atlantic Ocean, to NW Hispaniola then becomes diffuse to near Jamaica. Strong NE winds induced by the pressure gradient between the high pressure across the W Atlantic and the cold frontal remnants is producing strong NE winds across much of the NW Caribbean east of 86W and through the Windward Passage. Seas as high as 9-10 ft are seen in the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely scattered moderate rainshowers, are within 300 nm to the north and NW of the stationary front. Expect the possibility of patches of moisture, with embedded showers, across eastern Cuba where locally heavy rain and gusty winds may occur. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, span the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the low level wind flow. A surface trough is along 11N74W in northern Colombia, to 45 nm to the south of the Colombia/Panama border, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Strong high pressure over the western Atlantic will support fresh to strong winds across the northwest and south- central Caribbean through Fri morning, pulsing to gale-force near the coast of Colombia through around sunrise this morning. A surface trough will develop across the Leeward Islands Thu and move west and linger over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through Sat. Seas over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Leeward and Windward Islands will remain 8 ft or greater through Fri night in mixed NW swell and E wind waves. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 32N47W to 26N55W, to across NW Hispaniola. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely scattered moderate rainshowers, are within 300 nm to the north and NW of the stationary front. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the NW of the frontal boundary, centered on a 1033 mb high pressure center near 34N72W. Strong NE winds prevail between 28N and the frontal boundary, where NW swell is combining with wind driven seas to produce seas of 10-13 ft along the front. East of the front, a 1030 mb high pressure center near 35N23W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 18N northward from the stationary front eastward. Fresh NE to E tradewinds prevail across the eastern Atlantic waters south of 24N and across the Lesser Antilles. Seas across the tropical Atlantic are generally 8-10 ft in mixed NW swell and easterly tradewind swell. The central Atlantic stationary front is expected to drift northward and meander across the SE Bahamas through Thu night before dissipating early Fri. Strong high pressure north of the front will support fresh to strong NE winds with large seas in mixed NW and NE swell south of 28N today will continue through Fri evening south of 27N. Another cold front will move southward into the waters between Bermuda to northeast Florida Sat night through Sun, sinking southward to along roughly 25N Mon night. $$ Stripling