000 AXNT20 KNHC 110605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Mar 11 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING: NE gale-force winds, and sea heights to 9 feet, are present from 11N to 11.5N between 74.5W and 75W. The gale-force wind conditions will last during the late night and early morning hours of today, Thursday. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, from the National Hurricane Center, at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. Locally heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola: A stationary front passes through 22N65W in the Atlantic Ocean, to Hispaniola. Moisture associated with the front will remain in place through Thursday, then diminishing by Friday. Fresh to strong NE winds persist to the north of the front. These winds will continue to move patches of low level moisture with embedded showers across Hispaniola. It is possible that locally heavy rain and gusty winds may be associated with the strongest rainshowers. Warnings and watches have been announced for several provinces, by the Weather Bureau of the Dominican Republic. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of Sierra Leone and Liberia, to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from 05N14W, to 04N20W, 01N30W, and to the Equator along 37W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong to widely scattered strong is from 04N to 05N between 10W and the monsoon trough/ITCZ, and within 120 nm to the north of the ITCZ. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 03N between 41W and 46W, and from 10N to 12N between 58W and 63W, near Trinidad and Tobago, and parts of NE Venezuela. Isolated moderate is elsewhere, from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge passes through NE Florida, to the Florida Big Bend, to SE Louisiana, to the Texas coastal waters, to the coastal sections of Mexico near 20N97W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. Strong high pressure off the Carolinas will shift slowly eastward and support fresh to strong NE to E winds in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and in the Florida Straits, into Saturday. Southeast return flow in the western Gulf of Mexico will expand gradually across the entire Gulf of Mexico, from Thursday through Friday, and persist through the weekend, as the high pressure shifts eastward. The next cold front is expected to enter the northwest Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and stall there through Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front passes through 22N65W in the Atlantic Ocean, to Hispaniola. Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely scattered moderate rainshowers, are within 300 nm to the north and NW of the stationary front. Expect the possibilityof patches of moisture, with embedded showers, in eastern Cuba where locally heavy rain and gusty winds may occur. Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, span the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow. A surface trough is along 11N74W in northern Colombia, to 45 nm to the south of the Colombia/Panama border, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 07N to 08N between 78W and 79W, near the SW part of the border of Panama with Colombia. Please refer to the forecasts and weather bulletins from your local meteorological offices for more details. Strong high pressure, building in the western Atlantic Ocean, will support fresh to strong trade winds in the northwestern and the south central sections of the Caribbean Sea through late Friday. The wind speeds will be pulsing to gale-force near the coast of Colombia tonight. A surface trough will develop across the Leeward Islands on Thursday, and move westward, and linger over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through Saturday. The sea heights in the tropical Atlantic Ocean to the east of the Leeward Islands and the Windward Islands will remain at 8 feet or greater for the next several days, in mixed NW swell and E wind waves. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 32N48W to 28N50W, and 24N60W, to 20N68W, across Hispaniola to the west central coastal sections of Haiti. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely scattered moderate rainshowers, are within 300 nm to the north and NW of the stationary front. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the NW of the frontal boundary. A 1035 mb high pressure center is near 34N72W. A 1031 mb high pressure center near 35N25W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 18N northward from the stationary front eastward. A stationary front extending from 22N65W to the N central coast of Hispaniola is expected to drift northward and meander through Thu before dissipating Thu night. Strong high pressure building north of the front will support fresh to strong NE winds with large seas in mixed NW and NE swell south of 28N continuing through Fri evening south of 27N. Looking ahead, another cold front will move southward into the waters between Bermuda to northeast Florida Sat night through Sun, stalling along roughly 30N Sun night, then lifting northward as a warm front through Mon. $$ mt/ss