000 AXNT20 KNHC 082352 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Mar 9 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building behind a cold front moving SE across the cental Atlantic will increase the pressure gradient across the south-central Caribbean through midweek. Winds within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia are expected to increase to gale force tonight, and then again Tue night. Seas will reach 12 ft or higher during the period of peak winds. Refer the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the Gale Warnings. Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola and Honduras: A cold front extending from NW Hispaniola southwestward to Jamaica northern adjacent waters will stall over the Dominican Republic tonight through Tue evening. Heavy rainfall is forecast with the potential for localized flooding, particularly for northwestern portions of the Dominican Republic late tonight through Tue night. The tail end of the same front is stalling out over northern Honduras, where locally heavy rainfall is also likely through early Wed. See products issued by your National Meteorological Service for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of W Africa near 10N15W and continues SW to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01.5S45W. Scattered moderate convection is south of the monsoon trough from 01N-07N between 07W-15W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ between 19W and the coast of South America. GULF OF MEXICO... Strong 1033 mb high pressure centered over central Tennessee extends a ridge S into the Gulf which is currently supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds over the eastern half of the basin with the strongest winds happening in the Straits of Florida, western Cuba adjacent waters and the Yucatan channel. Seas in the region of strongest winds range between 8 to 9 ft. Moderate NE to E winds winds with seas to 6 ft are elsewhere across the western half of the gulf. Otherwise, strong dry air subsidence continues to support mainly clear skies, with the exception of the SW Gulf where shallow moisture is supporting areas of overcast low clouds with showers. Strong high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will support fresh to strong NE to E winds over the SE Gulf and the Florida Straits through midweek. As the ridge slides eastward during the latter parts of this week, fresh SE return flow will develop across much of the northern and western Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning for the south-central Caribbean Sea and on the heavy rainfall for portions of Hispaniola and Honduras. The tail of a cold front extends from NW Haiti southwest to northern Jamaica adjacent waters where it transitions to a stationary front that continues to Honduras. Scattered showers are along portions of the front, including Hispaniola, eastern Cuba and Jamaica. Relatively dry conditions prevail across the the remainder basin. Fresh to strong NE winds are behing the front over the NW Caribbean waters, including the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh trades are in the central and eastern Caribbean while strong to near gale force NE winds are over the offshore waters between Panama and Colombia. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist across the south-central Caribbean through midweek, with gale-force winds expected to pulse near the coast of Colombia for the next several nights. The front is expected to remain nearly stationary and weaken over the next couple of days, but strong NE winds will persist poleward of the front into midweek over the NW Caribbean and through the Windward Passage. Seas over the Tropical N Atlantic waters will remain 8 ft or greater for the next several days in mixed N swell and E wind waves. Of note...a robust wet pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is currently generating numerous showers and tstorms over western Colombia. Periods of heavy rains are expected over western Colombia through early Tue. These rains are likely to cause localized flooding. Please refer to the forecasts of your local meteorological offices for more details. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N58W to 23N65W to Jamaica northern adjacent waters near 18N77W. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection along and within 120 nm SE of the front, north of 26N and east of 63W. Isolated showers are occurring along portions of the remainder of the front. A recent ASCAT pass reveals near gale force S-SW winds just ahead of the front, north of 28N. A post-frontal surface trough is analyzed from 31N63W to 27N66W. From 30N-31N, near gale force SW winds are between the front and the surface trough, while near gale to gale force NW winds are within 90 nm to the W of the surface trough. Please see the Special Features section for more details about the ongoing Gale Warning in this area. Fresh to strong northerly winds prevail elsewhere over the W Atlantic between the cold front and Florida, with seas 8-13 ft. For the forecast, the front will move eastward through tonight, reaching along 32N50W to 22N65W to the Dominican Republic early Tue. The portion west of 65W will stall on Tue and gradually dissipate through midweek. Strong high pressure will build behind the front and support fresh to strong N to NE winds with large seas in the 8-12 ft range much of this week, south of 27N between 60W and the Bahamas. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of the Azores High, currently at 1034 mb centered near 34N34W. The high is supporting a large area of fresh to strong trade winds from 05N-26N between 20W-53W. Seas in this area are 7 to 12 ft in primarily easterly trade wind swell. $$ Ramos