492 AXNT20 KNHC 072337 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Mar 8 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A stationary front extends from 31N64W to a 1012 mb low near 28N70W. A cold front extends from this low to the central Bahamas to Belize adjacent waters. The cold front will move SE through Mon, while the low slides NE along the front and deepens across the western Atlantic through tonight. High pressure NW of the region will act to increase northerly winds behind the front. Gale force winds are expected to develop within 210 nm SW quadrant of the low tonight. Gale conditions will lift N of the area by Mon morning. Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building behind a cold front moving SE across the western Atlantic the next few days will increase the pressure gradient across the south central Caribbean tonight through midweek. Winds within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia are expected to increase to gale force Mon night, and then again Tue night. Seas will reach 12 ft or higher during the period of peak winds. For more information, please refer the Atlantic High Seas forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of W Africa near 09N14W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 00N30W to 01S45W. There is no significant convection at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure building along the eastern United States extending a ridge SW into the gulf is currently supporting NE moderate to fresh winds over the eastern half of the basin and gentle to moderate NE to E winds W of 90W. Seas are 5 to 8 ft E of 90W, the highest seas being in the SE portion of the gulf where strong NE winds are developing. In the western half of the basin, seas range between 3 to 6 ft. Strong dry air subsidence continue to support mainly clear skies, except over the far western gulf W of 94W where shallow moisture and diffluent flow at the lower levels support a line of showers along the coast and adjacent waters of Mexico. Strong winds developing this evening in the SE basin will affect the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan channel through early next weekend. Otherwise, by Thu, SE return flow will develop across the northern and western Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front is over central Cuba and extends over the Caribbean near 22N82W to 19N87W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 90 nm of this front. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds are north of the front, while light to gentle winds are occurring over the remainder of the western Caribbean. Mainly moderate to fresh winds are occurring over the central Caribbean, with locally strong winds near the Colombia coast. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are over the eastern Caribbean. Wind will increase across the basin tonight as high pressure builds north of the region. Winds will pulse to gale force off the coast of Colombia Mon night and Tue night. The cold front will move SE into Tuesday, when it will reach from Haiti to Jamaica. Strong NE winds and building seas will prevail behind the front over the western Caribbean. Of note...A week-long period of intermittent heavy rains is expected over Ecuador, SW Colombia and northern Peru in association with a robust wet pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation, arriving to the area this weekend. Rainfall totals of 200-300 mm (8-12 in) are expected in coastal Ecuador and SW Colombia, and 100-200 mm (4-8 in) of rainfall are expected over northern Peru and the Eje Cafetero region of Colombia. Please refer to the forecasts of your local meteorological offices for more details. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N65W to 1013 mb low pressure near 27N75W. A cold front extends from this low to central Cuba near 23N80W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of either side of these fronts east of 73W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are north of the fronts, where seas are from 7-10 ft. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of the Azores high, which is supporting a large area of fresh to strong trade winds east of 55W. Seas are 7 to 13 ft with a component of longer period NW swell. Strong N to NE winds behind the front will prevail into Monday night as the low moves NE and out of the area. Gales will develop on the west side of the low this afternoon and continue on Monday. By Tuesday, the front will slow down and weaken from 22N65W to the Haiti Dominican Republic border. Strong high pressure will build north of the front and support strong NE winds south of 27N through Wednesday. $$ Ramos