000 AXNT20 KNHC 071049 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Mar 7 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1010 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: Merging cold fronts extend from 30N66W to 1013 mb low pressure near 25N77.5W to the northern Yucatan Peninsula. The new front will move SE through Mon, while the low moving through the Bahamas slides NE along the front and deepens across the western Atlantic today through tonight. High pressure north of the region will act to increase northerly winds behind the front to gale force NW of the low pres late this afternoon through tonight from 27N-31N between 62W-74W, where seas will build to 10-12 ft. The low and gale force winds will lift N of the area by Mon morning. Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building behind a cold front that will move SE across the western Atlantic the next few days will increase the pressure gradient across the south central Caribbean tonight through midweek. Winds within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia are expected to increase to gale force Mon night, and then again Tue night. Seas will reach 12 ft or higher during the period of peak winds. For more information, please refer the Atlantic High Seas forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of W Africa near 11N15W to 04.5N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 00N30W to 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the monsoon trough from 01N-07N between 11W-21W. Similar convection is noted near the ITCZ from 03S-02N between 30W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level trough continues to support a cold front that extends from the Straits of Florida to the northern Yucatan Peninsula where the front transitions to stationary. Strong high pressure building northwest of the front over the lower Mississippi Valley to the Texas coast is currently supporting fresh to strong NE winds over the eastern half of the Gulf and fresh N to NE winds west of 90W. Recent radar imagery noted scattered showers ahead of the front in the Straits of Florida. Seas behind the front to 90W range between 5 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, seas are 3 to 6 ft, reaching 6 ft off the coast of Tampico, Mexico. The front will move into the NW Caribbean today. High pressure building behind the front will support strong east winds across the eastern Gulf this afternoon through Wed. SE return flow will develop across the northern Gulf late Wed through Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers are over the Yucatan Channel and portions of the far NW Caribbean associated with a cold front moving across the SE Gulf of Mexico and entering the Caribbean Basin. A surface trough is noted ahead of the front stretching from western Cuba to Belize. A 1015 mb surface high is observed in the western Caribbean near 18N84W, supporting gentle anticyclonic winds and calm seas. Elsewhere across the basin, fresh trades prevail, with seas 6 to 7 ft south of 14N across the waters from the A-B-C Islands to NW Colombia. Fresh to strong tradewinds will prevail in the southern Caribbean today before strengthening basin wide. Winds will pulse to gale force off the coast of Colombia Mon night and Tue night. A cold front entering the northwest Caribbean this morning will move SE through Mon and then stall from Hispaniola to Honduras by Tue. Strong NE winds and building seas will prevail behind the front over the western Caribbean. Of note...A week-long period of intermittent heavy rains is expected over Ecuador, SW Colombia and northern Peru in association with a robust wet pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation, arriving to the area this weekend. Rainfall totals of 200-300 mm (8-12 in) are expected in coastal Ecuador and SW Colombia, and 100-200 mm (4-8 in) of rainfall are expected over northern Peru and the Eje Cafetero region of Colombia. Please refer to the forecasts of your local meteorological offices for more details. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stalled cold front extends from 1014 mb low pressure near 29N68W to 1013 mb low pres near 25N77.5W to the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed over the northern Bahamas, ahead of the front. Another area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is observed near a surface trough SE of the front extending from 30N59W to 26N69W. Fresh to strong NE winds are north of 27N, behind the front that is moving across the W Atlantic, where seas are from 7-11 ft. The remainder basin is under the influence of the Azores high, which is supporting a large area of fresh to strong trade winds east of 60W. Seas are 7 to 12 ft with a component of longer period NW swell. Strong N to NE winds behind the front and N of 27N will build in behind the front through Mon as the front moves SE across the regional waters, and the lows slide NE along the front. Winds will reach gale force immediately behind the front late this afternoon through tonight to the north of 27N and east of 76W. The front is expected to stall from near 22N65W to central Hispaniola early Tue. Strong high pressure will build north of the front and support strong NE winds south of 27N through Wed. $$ Stripling